Hatayspor 0-3 Ümraniyespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ümraniyespor at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hatayspor vs Ümraniyespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hatayspor and Ümraniyespor meet at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 30 May 2023 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 0W 0D 10L from 10 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
At home at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Hatayspor have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.00 — Hatayspor are significantly better at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Ümraniyespor have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Ümraniyespor have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ümraniyespor are 0.90 PPG clear of Hatayspor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (0.90 vs 0.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hatayspor lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Hatayspor half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 61% of games.
Ümraniyespor half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 30% versus Ümraniyespor 70%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hatayspor 73% | Ümraniyespor 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 0.94 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.501 / defence 1.409 | Ümraniyespor attack 0.885 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.417. Hatayspor's attack strength of 0.501 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 71 Hatayspor games / 33 Ümraniyespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 20% | Draw 23% | Ümraniyespor 57%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 5.00 | Draw 4.35 | Ümraniyespor 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Ümraniyespor (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ümraniyespor at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Hatayspor 20% | Ümraniyespor 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Ümraniyespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 May 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 20% | Draw 23% | Ümraniyespor 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG Hatayspor 0.94 / Ümraniyespor 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.501 / def 1.409 | Ümraniyespor attack 0.885 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: Ümraniyespor (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Ümraniyespor xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Ümraniyespor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Ümraniyespor kicked off at 01:00 on Tuesday 30 May 2023 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Hatayspor 0 - 3 Ümraniyespor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Ümraniyespor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Ümraniyespor part of?
Hatayspor vs Ümraniyespor is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 20% chance of winning, Ümraniyespor a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ümraniyespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hatayspor and Ümraniyespor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Ümraniyespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Ümraniyespor?
Record (1 meetings): Hatayspor 0W | Draws 1 | Ümraniyespor 0W.
What form are Hatayspor and Ümraniyespor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Ümraniyespor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (0.50) and Ümraniyespor's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ümraniyespor's attack (0.89x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.4%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ümraniyespor Win
20%
5.06
23%
4.29
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.71
1.77
Ümraniyespor xG
5.06
20%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
3%
29.67
22%
4.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.8 | 10.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Ümraniyespor expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.77 for Ümraniyespor, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hatayspor come into this having played 33 games, going 6W 5D 22L for 0.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Ümraniyespor sit at 0.82 PPG from 33 outings (6W 9D 18L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.70 PPG for Hatayspor against 0.82 for Ümraniyespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hatayspor's home form reads 4W 4D 8L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Ümraniyespor have taken 0.88 points per game from 16 outings (3W 5D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Hatayspor are averaging 0.58 goals scored and 2.24 conceded per game recently; Ümraniyespor are on 1.33 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ümraniyespor in 70%.
Last 33 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Current Season
Ümraniyespor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Ümraniyespor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 6W 5D 22L in their last 33 games (0.70 PPG), while Ümraniyespor have gone 6W 9D 18L in their last 33 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Ümraniyespor away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.00 PPG; Ümraniyespor away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hatayspor
1
Draws
1
Ümraniyespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Ümraniyespor?
From 2 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 0, Ümraniyespor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Ümraniyespor last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2023, when Hatayspor 0-3 Ümraniyespor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Ümraniyespor?
Ümraniyespor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Ümraniyespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 38%, Ümraniyespor 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Hatayspor and 56% for Ümraniyespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Ümraniyespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Ümraniyespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Hatayspor's games and 75% of Ümraniyespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Ümraniyespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Hatayspor's matches and 56% of Ümraniyespor's.
Do Hatayspor and Ümraniyespor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Ümraniyespor in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ümraniyespor run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ümraniyespor beat Hatayspor 0-3 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 0.94 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.77 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hatayspor fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Ümraniyespor outscored their 1.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.50 / defence 1.41 against Ümraniyespor attack 0.89 / defence 1.15, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 20% | Draw 23% | Ümraniyespor 57%, with Ümraniyespor to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 73%, Ümraniyespor 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 61% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 0.70 PPG, Ümraniyespor 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ümraniyespor win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ümraniyespor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.