Hatayspor 1-0 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hatayspor and Beşiktaş meet at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's home record at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu: 3W 1D 1L from 5 Süper Lig appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beşiktaş have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Hatayspor, 2.00 for Beşiktaş — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Hatayspor register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Beşiktaş in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Hatayspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hatayspor 60% and Beşiktaş 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hatayspor 50% | Beşiktaş 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.87 xG and Beşiktaş 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 1.129 / defence 1.157 | Beşiktaş attack 1.023 / defence 1.358. League average goals — home 1.217 / away 1.140. Beşiktaş bring a strong defensive rating of 1.358 — this is suppressing Hatayspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Hatayspor games / 10 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 50% | Draw 23% | Beşiktaş 28%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Beşiktaş 3.57. Hatayspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hatayspor as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hatayspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 80% | Beşiktaş 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 50% | Draw 23% | Beşiktaş 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Hatayspor 1.87 / Beşiktaş 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 1.129 / def 1.157 | Beşiktaş attack 1.023 / def 1.358 | league avg home 1.217 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Beşiktaş xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş?
Hatayspor 1 - 0 Beşiktaş.
Where is Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 50% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Hatayspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Beşiktaş?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hatayspor and Beşiktaş in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Beşiktaş (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hatayspor's attack at 1.13x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.02x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
50%
2.02
23%
4.43
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
3.22
1.35
Beşiktaş xG
2.02
50%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
13%
7.78
4%
23.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.35 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Hatayspor have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 6W 2D 2L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş's form line: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Hatayspor against 2.00 for Beşiktaş. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hatayspor have posted 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L).
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beşiktaş's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hatayspor are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Beşiktaş's attacking output running into Hatayspor's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hatayspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Beşiktaş in 60%.
Defensively: Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Beşiktaş in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 games (2.00 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Hatayspor's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 2.25 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Hatayspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 5-1 on 25 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hatayspor
3
Draws
3
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Beşiktaş?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Beşiktaş 5-1 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Beşiktaş see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Hatayspor, 75% for Beşiktaş — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Hatayspor and 75% for Beşiktaş. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Hatayspor's games and 75% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Hatayspor's matches and 75% of Beşiktaş's.
Do Hatayspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hatayspor edge out Beşiktaş 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Beşiktaş 1-0 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.87 xG and Beşiktaş 1.35 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hatayspor fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Beşiktaş landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 1.13 / defence 1.16 against Beşiktaş attack 1.02 / defence 1.36, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 50% | Draw 23% | Beşiktaş 28%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 50%, Beşiktaş 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 2.00 PPG, Beşiktaş 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hatayspor win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.