Hatayspor 2-3 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mersin Stadyumu plays host to Hatayspor versus Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hatayspor have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hatayspor have posted 1W 4D 5L at Mersin Stadyumu — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Antalyaspor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Antalyaspor have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Hatayspor, 1.10 for Antalyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Antalyaspor, who have claimed 4 wins from 7 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 2–3 with Antalyaspor winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Antalyaspor have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Hatayspor half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 60% versus Antalyaspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 50% | Antalyaspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.38 xG and Antalyaspor 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.730 / defence 1.098 | Antalyaspor attack 0.725 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.235. Hatayspor's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Hatayspor games / 58 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 44% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Antalyaspor 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hatayspor at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hatayspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Hatayspor 70% | Antalyaspor 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 44% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Hatayspor 1.38 / Antalyaspor 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.730 / def 1.098 | Antalyaspor attack 0.725 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Antalyaspor xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor?
Hatayspor 2 - 3 Antalyaspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 44% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hatayspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Antalyaspor?
Record (7 meetings): Hatayspor 1W | Draws 2 | Antalyaspor 4W.
What form are Hatayspor and Antalyaspor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (0.73) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.72x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
44%
2.28
32%
3.16
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.36
0.98
Antalyaspor xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
6%
16.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Hatayspor and 0.98 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Hatayspor have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 10W 21D 27L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antalyaspor's form line: 18W 17D 23L from 58 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Hatayspor against 1.22 for Antalyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hatayspor have posted 1.21 PPG from 29 outings (8W 11D 10L).
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 5W 7D 17L from 29 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hatayspor are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.14 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hatayspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 10W 21D 27L in their last 58 games (0.88 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 18W 17D 23L in their last 58 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.21 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Antalyaspor go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antalyaspor won 4-1 on 11 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Hatayspor
2
Draws
5
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Antalyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 1, Antalyaspor have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Hatayspor 2-3 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for Hatayspor, 59% for Antalyaspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Hatayspor) and 52% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Antalyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Hatayspor's games and 59% of Antalyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Hatayspor's recent games and 52% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hatayspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Antalyaspor defy the odds to beat Hatayspor 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Hatayspor 2-3 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.38 xG and Antalyaspor 0.98 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Antalyaspor outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.73 / defence 1.10 against Antalyaspor attack 0.72 / defence 1.11, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 44% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 25%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Antalyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 50%, Antalyaspor 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 0.88 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.