Gaziantep FK 1-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 43%, yet in-form Beşiktaş provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beşiktaş make the trip to Gaziantep Stadyumu to face Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 December 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Gaziantep FK (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep FK have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at Gaziantep Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Beşiktaş have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Beşiktaş arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Gaziantep FK register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Beşiktaş in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Gaziantep FK, 1 for Beşiktaş and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with Beşiktaş winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Gaziantep FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 57% versus Beşiktaş 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 51% | Beşiktaş 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.64 xG and Beşiktaş 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 1.050 / defence 0.950 | Beşiktaş attack 1.024 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.423. Data: 51 Gaziantep FK games / 51 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 43% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 32%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Beşiktaş 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gaziantep FK are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beşiktaş (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 70% | Beşiktaş 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Dec 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 43% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.64 / Beşiktaş 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 1.050 / def 0.950 | Beşiktaş attack 1.024 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.423 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Beşiktaş xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 25 December 2022 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş?
Gaziantep FK 1 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 43% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Beşiktaş?
Record (2 meetings): Gaziantep FK 0W | Draws 1 | Beşiktaş 1W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Beşiktaş in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gaziantep FK's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.02x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
43%
2.32
25%
4.00
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
3.02
1.39
Beşiktaş xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
19%
5.15
Win to Nil
11%
9.28
6%
16.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.39 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, Gaziantep FK have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 16W 14D 21L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş's form line: 21W 18D 12L from 51 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Gaziantep FK against 1.59 for Beşiktaş. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gaziantep FK have posted 2.00 PPG from 24 outings (13W 9D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Gaziantep FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 7W 9D 8L from 24 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.61 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 16W 14D 21L in their last 51 games (1.22 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 21W 18D 12L in their last 51 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Beşiktaş away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 2.00 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 3-0 on 17 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gaziantep FK have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gaziantep FK
4
Draws
4
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Gaziantep FK 0-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gaziantep FK see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Gaziantep FK, 71% for Beşiktaş — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Gaziantep FK) and 54% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Gaziantep FK's games and 71% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 54% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gaziantep FK and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, as Gaziantep FK and Beşiktaş drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.64 xG and Beşiktaş 1.39 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 1.05 / defence 0.95 against Beşiktaş attack 1.02 / defence 1.08, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 43% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 32%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 51%, Beşiktaş 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.22 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.