Göztepe 3-2 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Göztepe vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sivasspor make the trip to Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu to face Göztepe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Göztepe have collected 1.50 PPG across 6 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 3D 1L. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.83 goals per game, with 1.17 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Göztepe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Göztepe at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu this season: 2W 1D 0L from 3 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Göztepe are significantly better at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Sivasspor (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sivasspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sivasspor away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Göztepe, 1.40 for Sivasspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Göztepe 1W, Sivasspor 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2022, ended 2–1 with Göztepe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Göztepe — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Sivasspor — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 50% versus Sivasspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 50% | Sivasspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.64 xG and Sivasspor 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 1.191 / defence 0.909 | Sivasspor attack 0.808 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.300. Data: 6 Göztepe games / 45 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 52% | Draw 27% | Sivasspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Sivasspor 4.76. Göztepe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Göztepe if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Göztepe 33% | Sivasspor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 52% | Draw 27% | Sivasspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Göztepe 1.64 / Sivasspor 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 1.191 / def 0.909 | Sivasspor attack 0.808 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Sivasspor xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Sivasspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Sivasspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Sivasspor?
Göztepe 3 - 2 Sivasspor.
Where is Göztepe vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Sivasspor part of?
Göztepe vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 52% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Göztepe and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Sivasspor?
Record (2 meetings): Göztepe 1W | Draws 1 | Sivasspor 0W.
What form are Göztepe and Sivasspor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 2W-3D-1L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.83 / GA 1.17 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Göztepe's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Sivasspor's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Sivasspor's attack (0.81x) against Göztepe's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 6/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.75
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.60
0.95
Sivasspor xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
4%
24.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Göztepe and 0.95 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Göztepe come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 3D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Göztepe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 1.17 PPG from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sivasspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Göztepe against 1.17 for Sivasspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Göztepe's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Göztepe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sivasspor have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Göztepe are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Early Season
Sivasspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 2W 3D 1L in their last 6 games (1.50 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Sivasspor away?
Göztepe's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 2.33 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Göztepe have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Göztepe
1
Draws
1
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Sivasspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 2, Sivasspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Sivasspor 3-1 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Sivasspor?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Göztepe) and 33% (Sivasspor) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Göztepe) and 33% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Sivasspor in 33%; Sivasspor in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Sivasspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Göztepe's recent matches and 33% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Göztepe's recent games and 33% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Göztepe edge out Sivasspor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Sivasspor 3-2 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.64 xG and Sivasspor 0.95 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Göztepe beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sivasspor outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.19 / defence 0.91 against Sivasspor attack 0.81 / defence 0.94, drawn from 6/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 52% | Draw 27% | Sivasspor 21%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 50%, Sivasspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Sivasspor's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.50 PPG, Sivasspor 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock. Göztepe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.