Göztepe 1-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Göztepe at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Göztepe vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 4 as Göztepe welcome Konyaspor to Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Friday 29 August 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Göztepe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Göztepe at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu this season.
Konyaspor — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Göztepe) versus 1.80 (Konyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Göztepe register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Konyaspor in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Göztepe have won 1, Konyaspor 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Konyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Göztepe trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Konyaspor trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Göztepe 60% and Konyaspor 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 53% | Konyaspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.23 xG and Konyaspor 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.915 / defence 0.797 | Konyaspor attack 1.201 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.266. Konyaspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.201 — the away xG of 1.21 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Göztepe's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Göztepe games / 38 Konyaspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Göztepe 37% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 36%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Konyaspor 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Göztepe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Göztepe 60% | Konyaspor 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 29 Aug 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 37% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Göztepe 1.23 / Konyaspor 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.915 / def 0.797 | Konyaspor attack 1.201 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Konyaspor xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Konyaspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Konyaspor kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 29 August 2025 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Konyaspor?
Göztepe 1 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Göztepe vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Konyaspor part of?
Göztepe vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 37% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Göztepe and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Konyaspor?
Record (4 meetings): Göztepe 1W | Draws 0 | Konyaspor 3W.
What form are Göztepe and Konyaspor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Konyaspor (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Göztepe's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
37%
2.73
27%
3.65
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.44
1.21
Konyaspor xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
11%
9.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.6 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.21 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Göztepe come into this having played 38 games, going 15W 11D 12L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Göztepe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.37 PPG from 38 outings (15W 7D 16L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Göztepe on 1.47 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Göztepe's home form reads 10W 7D 2L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Göztepe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.89 points per game from 19 outings (5W 2D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Konyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Göztepe are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.37 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Konyaspor in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 15W 11D 12L in their last 38 games (1.47 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 15W 7D 16L in their last 38 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Konyaspor away?
Göztepe's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 1.95 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Göztepe and Konyaspor runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2022, when Konyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Göztepe's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Göztepe
2
Draws
3
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Konyaspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 1, Konyaspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Konyaspor 0-0 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 53%, Konyaspor 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Göztepe) and 53% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Konyaspor in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Göztepe's games and 63% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Göztepe vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Göztepe's recent games and 53% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Göztepe and Konyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, as Göztepe and Konyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.23 xG and Konyaspor 1.21 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.92 / defence 0.80 against Konyaspor attack 1.20 / defence 0.97, drawn from 39/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 37% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 36%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 53%, Konyaspor 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.47 PPG, Konyaspor 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.