Göztepe vs Beşiktaş – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Göztepe vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Beşiktaş travel to to take on Göztepe. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 January 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at , Göztepe have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Göztepe 1.20 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Göztepe have won 2, Beşiktaş 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2026, ended 0–4 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Göztepe in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Beşiktaş in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 50% versus Beşiktaş 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 50% | Beşiktaş 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.37 xG and Beşiktaş 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.950 / defence 1.301 | Beşiktaş attack 1.114 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.187. Data: 42 Göztepe games / 41 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 31% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 46%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Beşiktaş 2.17. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Göztepe 60% | Beşiktaş 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jan 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 31% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Göztepe 1.37 / Beşiktaş 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.950 / def 1.301 | Beşiktaş attack 1.114 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Beşiktaş xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Göztepe vs Beşiktaş is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 17 January 2027.
What competition is Göztepe vs Beşiktaş part of?
Göztepe vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 31% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Göztepe and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Beşiktaş?
Record (6 meetings): Göztepe 2W | Draws 1 | Beşiktaş 3W.
What form are Göztepe and Beşiktaş in?
Göztepe (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Göztepe's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
31%
3.26
24%
4.26
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Göztepe xG
Total xG
3.09
1.72
Beşiktaş xG
3.26
31%
Home win
4.26
24%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
5%
18.27
12%
8.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.72 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Göztepe come into this having played 42 games, going 16W 16D 10L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.79 PPG from 42 outings (22W 9D 11L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Göztepe on 1.52 PPG, Beşiktaş on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Göztepe's home form reads 8W 8D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.60 points per game from 20 outings (9W 5D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Göztepe are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.79 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 16W 16D 10L in their last 42 games (1.52 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 22W 9D 11L in their last 42 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Beşiktaş away?
Göztepe's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 1.60 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2026, when Beşiktaş won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Göztepe's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Göztepe
1
Draws
3
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Beşiktaş?
From 6 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Beşiktaş 4-0 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 50%, Beşiktaş 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Göztepe) and 50% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Göztepe's recent matches and 50% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Göztepe's recent games and 50% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.