Fenerbahçe 5-4 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi plays host to Fenerbahçe versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 9 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fenerbahçe have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Fenerbahçe are significantly better at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi than their overall form suggests.
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fatih Karagümrük away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Fenerbahçe's favour (1.90 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Fenerbahçe 0W, Fatih Karagümrük 0W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 58% versus Fatih Karagümrük 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 56% | Fatih Karagümrük 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.07 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.582 / defence 0.911 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.786 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.234. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.582 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Fenerbahçe games / 45 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 65% | Draw 20% | Fatih Karagümrük 15%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Fatih Karagümrük 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fenerbahçe 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 65% | Draw 20% | Fatih Karagümrük 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 51% | xG Fenerbahçe 2.07 / Fatih Karagümrük 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.582 / def 0.911 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.786 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Fatih Karagümrük xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Fenerbahçe 5 - 4 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 65% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (2 meetings): Fenerbahçe 0W | Draws 2 | Fatih Karagümrük 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.58) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.79x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
65%
1.54
20%
4.97
15%
6.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
2.95
0.88
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
6.63
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
2%
52.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.88 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fenerbahçe's recent record stands at 25W 12D 8L from 45 games, a 1.93 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 16L across 45 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-D-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fatih Karagümrük heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fenerbahçe have managed 13W 6D 3L from 22 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 6W 6D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.24 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 25W 12D 8L in their last 45 games (1.93 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 17W 12D 16L in their last 45 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.05 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
1
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 5, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 59%, Fatih Karagümrük 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Fenerbahçe) and 54% (Fatih Karagümrük). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 46% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 54% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Fatih Karagümrük 5-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Fatih Karagümrük 5-4 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.07 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.88 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 5-4 for 9 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fatih Karagümrük outscored their 0.88 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.58 / defence 0.91 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.79 / defence 0.96, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 65% | Draw 20% | Fatih Karagümrük 15%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 56%, Fatih Karagümrük 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.