Fenerbahçe 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fenerbahçe face Fatih Karagümrük.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu plays host to Fenerbahçe versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 19 October 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fenerbahçe have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 1W 0D 7L across 8 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.38 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.88 per game is modest, conceding 2.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.25 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük away from home this season: 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.38 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.52 in Fenerbahçe's favour (1.90 vs 0.38) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Fatih Karagümrük in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, Fenerbahçe are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Fenerbahçe winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fenerbahçe and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 50% versus Fatih Karagümrük 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 38% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.13 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.202 / defence 0.818 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.934 / defence 1.325. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.324. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.325 — this is suppressing Fenerbahçe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Fenerbahçe games / 8 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 61% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 15%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Fatih Karagümrük 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 60% | Fatih Karagümrük 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 61% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Fenerbahçe 2.13 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.202 / def 0.818 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.934 / def 1.325 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Fatih Karagümrük xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 19 October 2025 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Fenerbahçe 2 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 61% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (6 meetings): Fenerbahçe 4W | Draws 2 | Fatih Karagümrük 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 1W-0D-7L in 8 | 0.38 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 2.25 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.20) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 2.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.93x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 44/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
61%
1.63
23%
4.32
15%
6.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.14
1.01
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
6.51
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
12%
8.44
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
2%
54.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.01 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fenerbahçe's recent record stands at 4W 4D 0L from 8 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 7L across 8 games — 0.38 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fatih Karagümrük heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fenerbahçe have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.38 PPG overall record — Fatih Karagümrük travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fenerbahçe are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 0.88 scored and 2.25 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 4W 4D 0L in their last 8 games (2.00 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 0D 7L in their last 8 (0.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.33 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
1
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 5, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 33%, Fatih Karagümrük 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Fenerbahçe and 100% for Fatih Karagümrük. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 67% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 100% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Fatih Karagümrük 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.13 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.01 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.20 / defence 0.82 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.93 / defence 1.32, drawn from 44/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 61% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 15%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 38%, Fatih Karagümrük 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.38. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.