Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 10 as Fatih Karagümrük welcome Trabzonspor to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 October 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Fatih Karagümrük) versus 1.50 (Trabzonspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Fatih Karagümrük, 2 for Trabzonspor and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2023, ended 1–4 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 64% versus Trabzonspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 61% | Trabzonspor 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.48 xG and Trabzonspor 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.952 / defence 0.933 | Trabzonspor attack 1.130 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.176. Data: 45 Fatih Karagümrük games / 44 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 41% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Trabzonspor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fatih Karagümrük are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 40% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 41% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.48 / Trabzonspor 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.952 / def 0.933 | Trabzonspor attack 1.130 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Trabzonspor xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 0 - 0 Trabzonspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 41% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor?
Record (4 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 1W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 2W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Trabzonspor's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
41%
2.45
29%
3.39
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.72
1.24
Trabzonspor xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
7%
14.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.24 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fatih Karagümrük's recent record stands at 15W 15D 14L from 44 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor, meanwhile, have gone 21W 6D 17L across 44 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fatih Karagümrük on 1.36 PPG, Trabzonspor on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fatih Karagümrük have managed 7W 7D 7L from 21 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trabzonspor's away record stands at 5W 2D 14L across 21 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.75 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fatih Karagümrük have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 15W 15D 14L in their last 44 games (1.36 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 21W 6D 17L in their last 44 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Trabzonspor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.33 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Trabzonspor have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Mar 2024, when Trabzonspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fatih Karagümrük's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Trabzonspor 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fatih Karagümrük at 62%, Trabzonspor at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Fatih Karagümrük and 71% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Fatih Karagümrük's games and 71% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 71% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fatih Karagümrük's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 10, as Fatih Karagümrük and Trabzonspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.48 xG and Trabzonspor 1.24 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Trabzonspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.95 / defence 0.93 against Trabzonspor attack 1.13 / defence 1.06, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 41% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 30%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 61%, Trabzonspor 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.36 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.