Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı plays host to Fatih Karagümrük versus Samsunspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük's home record at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Samsunspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Samsunspor have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Fatih Karagümrük against 0.70 for Samsunspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Fatih Karagümrük 1W, Samsunspor 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 2–3 with Samsunspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Samsunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 50% versus Samsunspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 50% | Samsunspor 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.12 xG and Samsunspor 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.786 / defence 1.217 | Samsunspor attack 0.976 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.289. Fatih Karagümrük's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Fatih Karagümrük games / 58 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 25% | Draw 32% | Samsunspor 43%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | Samsunspor 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Samsunspor as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 40% | Samsunspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 25% | Draw 32% | Samsunspor 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.12 / Samsunspor 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.786 / def 1.217 | Samsunspor attack 0.976 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Samsunspor xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 0 - 0 Samsunspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 25% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Samsunspor?
Record (3 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 1W | Draws 0 | Samsunspor 2W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Samsunspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Samsunspor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 0.79x the league average against Samsunspor's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (0.98x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 22/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
25%
4.08
32%
3.10
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.66
1.53
Samsunspor xG
4.08
25%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
5%
18.88
14%
7.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.53 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fatih Karagümrük come into this having played 22 games, going 3W 3D 16L for 0.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.36 PPG from 22 outings (7W 9D 6L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Samsunspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Fatih Karagümrük's home form reads 2W 2D 7L across 11 games on their own ground, a 0.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 1.45 points per game from 11 outings (4W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.14 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 3D 16L in their last 22 games (0.55 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 7W 9D 6L in their last 22 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Samsunspor away?
Samsunspor's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 0.73 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Fatih Karagümrük
1
Draws
2
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Samsunspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, Samsunspor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Samsunspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 36%, Samsunspor 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 46% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Samsunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 73% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 46% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fatih Karagümrük's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 23, as Fatih Karagümrük and Samsunspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.12 xG and Samsunspor 1.53 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Samsunspor landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.79 / defence 1.22 against Samsunspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.03, drawn from 22/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 25% | Draw 32% | Samsunspor 43%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 50%, Samsunspor 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Samsunspor's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.55. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.