Fatih Karagümrük 1-3 Galatasaray – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Galatasaray (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fatih Karagümrük face Galatasaray.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Galatasaray make the trip to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı to face Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 January 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fatih Karagümrük have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this season: 1W 2D 6L from 9 home games — 0.56 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game.
Galatasaray's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Galatasaray, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Galatasaray have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Galatasaray are 1.50 PPG clear of Fatih Karagümrük in recent Süper Lig fixtures (2.10 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Galatasaray, who have claimed 5 wins from 7 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2025, ended 0–3 with Galatasaray winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Galatasaray have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Galatasaray goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 44% versus Galatasaray 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 44% | Galatasaray 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 0.78 xG and Galatasaray 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.780 / defence 1.223 | Galatasaray attack 1.240 / defence 0.772. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.287. Fatih Karagümrük's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Galatasaray's defence strength of 0.772 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Galatasaray have an above-average attack strength of 1.240 — the away xG of 1.95 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 18 Fatih Karagümrük games / 54 Galatasaray games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 11% | Draw 27% | Galatasaray 62%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 9.09 | Draw 3.70 | Galatasaray 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Galatasaray (62%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Galatasaray are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 33% | Galatasaray 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 11% | Draw 27% | Galatasaray 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 0.78 / Galatasaray 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.780 / def 1.223 | Galatasaray attack 1.240 / def 0.772 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Galatasaray xG
50%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray?
Fatih Karagümrük 1 - 3 Galatasaray.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 11% chance of winning, Galatasaray a 62% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray?
Record (7 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 0W | Draws 2 | Galatasaray 5W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Galatasaray (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 0.78x the league average against Galatasaray's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Galatasaray's attack (1.24x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.95.
These ratings are built from 18/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
11%
8.87
27%
3.72
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.4%
Away win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.74
1.95
Galatasaray xG
8.87
11%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
14%
7.04
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
2%
62.43
28%
3.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 12.7 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.95 for Galatasaray, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fatih Karagümrük's recent record stands at 2W 3D 13L from 18 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Galatasaray, meanwhile, have gone 13W 4D 1L across 18 games — 2.39 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Galatasaray is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Galatasaray by 1.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fatih Karagümrük heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fatih Karagümrük have managed 1W 2D 5L from 8 games — 0.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Galatasaray's away record stands at 6W 1D 1L across 8 trips, a 2.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galatasaray come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Galatasaray are on 2.22 scored and 0.72 conceded.
Defensively: Galatasaray in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Galatasaray
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 2W 3D 13L in their last 18 games (0.50 PPG), while Galatasaray have gone 13W 4D 1L in their last 18 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Galatasaray away?
Galatasaray's away record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 0.62 PPG; Galatasaray away: 2.38 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Galatasaray been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Galatasaray in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Galatasaray have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Galatasaray won 3-0 on 15 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Galatasaray — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
6
Galatasaray
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 0, Galatasaray have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 1-3 Galatasaray.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 38%, Galatasaray 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 50% (Galatasaray).
On the defensive side: Galatasaray in 50%; Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Galatasaray away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Galatasaray?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 38% of Galatasaray's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 50% of Galatasaray's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Galatasaray in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Galatasaray cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Galatasaray beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-3 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 0.78 xG and Galatasaray 1.95 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Galatasaray outscored their 1.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.78 / defence 1.22 against Galatasaray attack 1.24 / defence 0.77, drawn from 18/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 11% | Draw 27% | Galatasaray 62%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 44%, Galatasaray 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Galatasaray's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Galatasaray (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.