Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor meet at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 3W 1D 1L across 5 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Antalyaspor have collected 0.80 PPG across 5 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 1D 3L. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Antalyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Fatih Karagümrük. A 1.20 PPG lead over Antalyaspor (2.00 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 40% versus Antalyaspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 60% | Antalyaspor 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 2.19 xG and Antalyaspor 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.428 / defence 1.137 | Antalyaspor attack 0.631 / defence 1.347. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.078. Fatih Karagümrük carry an above-average attack strength of 1.428 — their λ of 2.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Antalyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.347 — this is suppressing Fatih Karagümrük's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Fatih Karagümrük games / 5 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 70% | Draw 18% | Antalyaspor 12%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | Antalyaspor 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Fatih Karagümrük (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fatih Karagümrük are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Fatih Karagümrük 40% | Antalyaspor 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 70% | Draw 18% | Antalyaspor 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 48% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 2.19 / Antalyaspor 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.428 / def 1.137 | Antalyaspor attack 0.631 / def 1.347 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Antalyaspor xG
48%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 15:00 on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 0 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 70% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Antalyaspor (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fatih Karagümrük's attack rating (1.43) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 2.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.63x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 1-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
70%
1.43
18%
5.43
12%
8.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.96
0.77
Antalyaspor xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.43
18%
Draw
8.45
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
11%
8.91
Win to Nil
32%
3.11
1%
75.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.77 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 5 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 3W 1D 1L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Antalyaspor's form line: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games, 0.80 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Antalyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Fatih Karagümrük are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Antalyaspor.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antalyaspor in 60%.
Defensively: Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
Antalyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 games (2.00 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Fatih Karagümrük have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antalyaspor won 3-0 on 13 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fatih Karagümrük
1
Draws
4
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, Antalyaspor have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 40%, Antalyaspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 40% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in 40% of games; Antalyaspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 60% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 40% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fatih Karagümrük's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 6, as Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 2.19 xG and Antalyaspor 0.77 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.43 / defence 1.14 against Antalyaspor attack 0.63 / defence 1.35, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 70% | Draw 18% | Antalyaspor 12%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 60%, Antalyaspor 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fatih Karagümrük arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fatih Karagümrük managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.