Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 55%, yet the head-to-head data favours Alanyaspor — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Alanyaspor travel to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı to take on Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Alanyaspor — last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fatih Karagümrük 1.10 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Alanyaspor have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Fatih Karagümrük.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2023, ended Fatih Karagümrük 1–2 Alanyaspor — a Alanyaspor win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Alanyaspor have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Fatih Karagümrük trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Alanyaspor trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 58% versus Alanyaspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 60% | Alanyaspor 64%). Note also that Alanyaspor surrender HT leads in 41% of cases while Fatih Karagümrük recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.74 xG and Alanyaspor 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.154 / defence 0.799 | Alanyaspor attack 0.928 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.198. Fatih Karagümrük have a tight defence (rating 0.799), which is pulling Alanyaspor's projected output down. Data: built from Fatih Karagümrük's last 62 games and Alanyaspor's last 62.
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 55% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 16%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 1.82 | Draw 3.49 | Alanyaspor 6.08. The model has a clear lean to Fatih Karagümrük (55%) — a 26pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Fatih Karagümrük 30% (last 10 home games) | Alanyaspor 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 27 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 55% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.74 / Alanyaspor 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.154 / def 0.799 | Alanyaspor attack 0.928 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Alanyaspor xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor FAQs
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 1 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 27) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 55% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 16% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 1.15x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fatih Karagümrük's last 62 games and Alanyaspor's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
55%
1.82
29%
3.49
16%
6.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.63
0.89
Alanyaspor xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
6.08
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
3%
34.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.2 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.89 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fatih Karagümrük come into this having played 62 games, going 20W 19D 23L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.13 PPG from 62 outings (17W 19D 26L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fatih Karagümrük on 1.27 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Fatih Karagümrük's home form reads 13W 9D 9L across their last 31 home games, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 0.77 points per game from their last 31 away games (5W 9D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.37 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük (Home) vs Alanyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 20W 19D 23L in their last 62 games (1.27 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 17W 19D 26L in their last 62 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Alanyaspor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.55 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 16 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fatih Karagümrük's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Fatih Karagümrük
3
Draws
4
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, Alanyaspor have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 May 2026: Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 55%, Alanyaspor 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Fatih Karagümrük and 64% for Alanyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 55% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 64% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 73% of Alanyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 27, as Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.74 xG and Alanyaspor 0.89 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.15 / defence 0.80 against Alanyaspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 55% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 16%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 60%, Alanyaspor 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.27 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.