Eyüpspor 0-0 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor meet at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 September 2024 at 17:15 UTC.
Current Form
Eyüpspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games (2.33 PPG). Last five: D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Trabzonspor (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.33 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Eyüpspor half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 67% versus Trabzonspor 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Eyüpspor 33% | Trabzonspor 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.46 xG and Trabzonspor 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 1.143 / defence 1.147 | Trabzonspor attack 0.911 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.313. Data: 3 Eyüpspor games / 39 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 38% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 34%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Trabzonspor 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 67% | Trabzonspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 38% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Eyüpspor 1.46 / Trabzonspor 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 1.143 / def 1.147 | Trabzonspor attack 0.911 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Trabzonspor xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:15 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor?
Eyüpspor 0 - 0 Trabzonspor.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 38% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-W-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (1.14) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (0.91x) against Eyüpspor's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 3/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
38%
2.62
28%
3.60
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.83
1.37
Trabzonspor xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
10%
10.33
8%
12.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.37 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Eyüpspor have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 2W 1D 0L record — D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Trabzonspor's form line: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games, 2.33 PPG, last five W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.33 PPG for Eyüpspor against 2.33 for Trabzonspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Eyüpspor are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.67 scored and 0.67 conceded. Eyüpspor's scoring rate against Trabzonspor's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Eyüpspor have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Early Season
Trabzonspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Eyüpspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Trabzonspor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eyüpspor have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
1
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 0, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Eyüpspor 0-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 67%, Trabzonspor 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Eyüpspor and 33% for Trabzonspor.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 67%; Trabzonspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Trabzonspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 33% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 33% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Eyüpspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor finished level at 0-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.46 xG and Trabzonspor 1.37 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Eyüpspor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Trabzonspor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 1.14 / defence 1.15 against Trabzonspor attack 0.91 / defence 0.86, drawn from 3/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 38% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 34%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 33%, Trabzonspor 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 2.33 PPG, Trabzonspor 2.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Eyüpspor managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Trabzonspor managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.