Eyüpspor 0-4 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Göztepe make the trip to Esenyurt Necmi Kadioglu Stadi to face Eyüpspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Eyüpspor have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eyüpspor's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Esenyurt Necmi Kadioglu Stadi this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Göztepe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Göztepe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Göztepe's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Eyüpspor against 1.00 for Göztepe. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Eyüpspor, 0 for Göztepe and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 0.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Eyüpspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Göztepe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 40% versus Göztepe 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 48% | Göztepe 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.56 xG and Göztepe 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.823 / defence 1.001 | Göztepe attack 1.197 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.205. Göztepe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Eyüpspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Eyüpspor games / 40 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 41% | Draw 24% | Göztepe 35%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Göztepe 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eyüpspor are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 0.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 30% | Göztepe 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Esenyurt Necmi Kadioglu Stadi • Kick-off: Monday 12 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 41% | Draw 24% | Göztepe 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Eyüpspor 1.56 / Göztepe 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.823 / def 1.001 | Göztepe attack 1.197 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Göztepe xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Göztepe kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Göztepe kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 12 October 2026 at Esenyurt Necmi Kadioglu Stadi.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Göztepe?
Eyüpspor 0 - 4 Göztepe.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Esenyurt Necmi Kadioglu Stadi.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Göztepe part of?
Eyüpspor vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 41% chance of winning, Göztepe a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Eyüpspor and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Göztepe?
Record (4 meetings): Eyüpspor 1W | Draws 3 | Göztepe 0W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Göztepe in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Göztepe (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Eyüpspor's attack at 0.82x the league average against Göztepe's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Göztepe's attack (1.20x) against Eyüpspor's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
41%
2.47
24%
4.13
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
3.01
1.44
Göztepe xG
2.47
41%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
10%
10.46
7%
13.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.2 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.44 for Göztepe, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Eyüpspor's recent record stands at 9W 9D 22L from 40 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Göztepe, meanwhile, have gone 14W 16D 10L across 40 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Göztepe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Göztepe by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eyüpspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Eyüpspor have managed 6W 4D 10L from 20 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Göztepe's away record stands at 6W 8D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Eyüpspor are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.32 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Göztepe in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Early Season
Göztepe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 22L in their last 40 games (0.90 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 14W 16D 10L in their last 40 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Göztepe away?
Göztepe's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.10 PPG; Göztepe away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Göztepe in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 12 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Göztepe won 0-4 on 12 Oct 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eyüpspor have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Göztepe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Eyüpspor
3
Draws
1
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Göztepe?
From 5 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 1, Göztepe have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 12 October 2026, when Eyüpspor 0-4 Göztepe.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 40%, Göztepe 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Eyüpspor) and 45% (Göztepe).
On the defensive side: Göztepe in 35%; Eyüpspor have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Göztepe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 50% of Göztepe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 45% of Göztepe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Göztepe tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Göztepe run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Eyüpspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Eyüpspor 0-4 at Esenyurt Necmi Kadioglu Stadi, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.56 xG and Göztepe 1.44 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Eyüpspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Göztepe outscored their 1.44 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.82 / defence 1.00 against Göztepe attack 1.20 / defence 1.21, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 41% | Draw 24% | Göztepe 35%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Göztepe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 48%, Göztepe 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Göztepe's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Göztepe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.