Eyüpspor 1-0 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Göztepe make the trip to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to face Eyüpspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Eyüpspor have collected 1.50 PPG across 8 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 2L. Last five: D D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.62 goals per game, with 1.25 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eyüpspor's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 0L across 3 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Göztepe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 3D 1L from 7 games (1.71 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Göztepe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Göztepe's away record: 0W 2D 1L from 3 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.71 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Eyüpspor against 1.71 for Göztepe. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Eyüpspor have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Göztepe in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Eyüpspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Göztepe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 71% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eyüpspor 71% and Göztepe 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 71% | Göztepe 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 2.07 xG and Göztepe 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 1.122 / defence 1.098 | Göztepe attack 0.996 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.295. Göztepe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing Eyüpspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Eyüpspor games / 7 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 52% | Draw 23% | Göztepe 25%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Göztepe 4.00. Eyüpspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eyüpspor are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 67% | Göztepe 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 52% | Draw 23% | Göztepe 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Eyüpspor 2.07 / Göztepe 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 1.122 / def 1.098 | Göztepe attack 0.996 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Göztepe xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Göztepe kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Göztepe kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Göztepe?
Eyüpspor 1 - 0 Göztepe.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Göztepe part of?
Eyüpspor vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 52% chance of winning, Göztepe a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Eyüpspor and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Göztepe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eyüpspor and Göztepe in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 3W-3D-2L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.62 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Göztepe (all comps): 3W-3D-1L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.29 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Eyüpspor's attack at 1.12x the league average against Göztepe's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Göztepe's attack (1.00x) against Eyüpspor's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 8/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
52%
1.93
23%
4.35
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
3.48
1.42
Göztepe xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.97
3%
31.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.42 for Göztepe, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Eyüpspor's recent record stands at 3W 2D 2L from 7 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Göztepe, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 1L across 7 games — 1.71 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Göztepe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Eyüpspor against 1.71 for Göztepe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Eyüpspor have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Eyüpspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Göztepe's away record stands at 0W 2D 1L across 3 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Göztepe's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 2.00 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eyüpspor have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Göztepe in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Early Season
Göztepe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Göztepe away?
Eyüpspor's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 2.33 PPG; Göztepe away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Göztepe in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eyüpspor have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Göztepe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Eyüpspor
3
Draws
0
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Göztepe?
From 4 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 1, Göztepe have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Göztepe 0-0 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Göztepe?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Eyüpspor, 67% for Göztepe — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Eyüpspor) and 33% (Göztepe).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Göztepe in 33%; Eyüpspor have failed to score in 33% of games; Göztepe in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Eyüpspor's games and 67% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eyüpspor vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 33% of Göztepe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Göztepe tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eyüpspor edge out Göztepe 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Göztepe 1-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 2.07 xG and Göztepe 1.42 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Eyüpspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Göztepe landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 1.12 / defence 1.10 against Göztepe attack 1.00 / defence 1.26, drawn from 8/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 52% | Draw 23% | Göztepe 25%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 71%, Göztepe 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Göztepe's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.57 PPG, Göztepe 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.