Eyüpspor 2-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alanyaspor make the trip to Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu to face Eyüpspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Monday 25 August 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Eyüpspor (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eyüpspor at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Alanyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Alanyaspor are 0.60 PPG clear of Eyüpspor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Eyüpspor have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Alanyaspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Eyüpspor lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2025, ended 3–0 with Eyüpspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Eyüpspor — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 57% versus Alanyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 60% | Alanyaspor 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.49 xG and Alanyaspor 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 1.046 / defence 1.334 | Alanyaspor attack 0.996 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.278. Data: 38 Eyüpspor games / 37 Alanyaspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 34% | Draw 23% | Alanyaspor 43%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Alanyaspor 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 70% | Alanyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 25 Aug 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 34% | Draw 23% | Alanyaspor 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Eyüpspor 1.49 / Alanyaspor 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 1.046 / def 1.334 | Alanyaspor attack 0.996 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Alanyaspor xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 25 August 2025 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor?
Eyüpspor 2 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 34% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (2 meetings): Eyüpspor 1W | Draws 1 | Alanyaspor 0W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Eyüpspor's attack at 1.05x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (1.00x) against Eyüpspor's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
The sample (38/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
34%
2.96
23%
4.28
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
3.19
1.70
Alanyaspor xG
2.96
34%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
18%
5.46
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
6%
16.16
10%
10.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.70 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Eyüpspor come into this having played 37 games, going 15W 7D 15L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.24 PPG from 37 outings (12W 10D 15L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Eyüpspor against 1.24 for Alanyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Eyüpspor's home form reads 9W 3D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 0.89 points per game from 18 outings (4W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.16 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Early Season
Alanyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 15W 7D 15L in their last 37 games (1.41 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 12W 10D 15L in their last 37 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Eyüpspor's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.67 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Eyüpspor have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Eyüpspor won 3-0 on 19 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eyüpspor have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Eyüpspor
1
Draws
0
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor?
From 5 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 4, Alanyaspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Eyüpspor 2-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 56%, Alanyaspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Eyüpspor) and 44% (Alanyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 50% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Eyüpspor's matches and 44% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Eyüpspor defy the odds to beat Alanyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Alanyaspor 2-1 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.49 xG and Alanyaspor 1.70 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 1.05 / defence 1.33 against Alanyaspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 38/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 34% | Draw 23% | Alanyaspor 43%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Eyüpspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 60%, Alanyaspor 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.41 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.