Erzurumspor FK 2-0 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Erzurumspor FK at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 8 as Erzurumspor FK welcome Eyüpspor to Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Erzurumspor FK stand at 2W 2D 3L from 7 Süper Lig matches — 1.14 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 0.43 goals per game and conceding 1.57 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 14% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Erzurumspor FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Erzurumspor FK's home record at Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu: 2W 0D 1L from 3 Süper Lig appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.14 — Erzurumspor FK are significantly better at Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Eyüpspor have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eyüpspor's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Erzurumspor FK 1.14 PPG, Eyüpspor 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Erzurumspor FK in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they fail to score in 86% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Erzurumspor FK 14% | Eyüpspor 14%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Erzurumspor FK 43% | Eyüpspor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzurumspor FK 1.62 xG and Eyüpspor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.706 / defence 1.088 | Eyüpspor attack 0.701 / defence 1.464. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.234. Erzurumspor FK's attack strength of 0.706 is below the league average — the 1.62 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Eyüpspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.464 — this is suppressing Erzurumspor FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Erzurumspor FK games / 41 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 53% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Erzurumspor FK 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Eyüpspor 4.55. Erzurumspor FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Erzurumspor FK are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Erzurumspor FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Erzurumspor FK 0% | Eyüpspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 53% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Erzurumspor FK 1.62 / Eyüpspor 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.706 / def 1.088 | Eyüpspor attack 0.701 / def 1.464 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Erzurumspor FK (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Erzurumspor FK xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Eyüpspor xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor?
Erzurumspor FK 2 - 0 Eyüpspor.
Where is Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu.
What competition is Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor part of?
Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Erzurumspor FK a 53% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Erzurumspor FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Erzurumspor FK and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzurumspor FK and Eyüpspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Eyüpspor in?
Erzurumspor FK (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 0.43 / GA 1.57 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Erzurumspor FK's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Eyüpspor's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Erzurumspor FK's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Erzurumspor FK Win
53%
1.88
25%
4.03
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Erzurumspor FK xG
Total xG
2.56
0.94
Eyüpspor xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
4%
23.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Erzurumspor FK and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Erzurumspor FK and 0.94 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Erzurumspor FK's recent record stands at 2W 2D 3L from 7 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Erzurumspor FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Eyüpspor, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 6L across 7 games — 0.43 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Erzurumspor FK by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eyüpspor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Erzurumspor FK have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Erzurumspor FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Eyüpspor's away record stands at 0W 0D 3L across 3 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eyüpspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Erzurumspor FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Erzurumspor FK are averaging 0.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 0.29 scored and 2.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Erzurumspor FK have seen both teams score in 14% of their recent games; Eyüpspor in 14%.
Defensively: Erzurumspor FK have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzurumspor FK
Early Season
Eyüpspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Erzurumspor FK have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 games (1.14 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 1W 0D 6L in their last 7 (0.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Erzurumspor FK at home or Eyüpspor away?
Erzurumspor FK's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Erzurumspor FK at home: 2.00 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Erzurumspor FK or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Erzurumspor FK have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Erzurumspor FK
0
Draws
0
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Erzurumspor FK and Eyüpspor?
From 1 meetings on record, Erzurumspor FK have won 1, Eyüpspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Erzurumspor FK and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Erzurumspor FK 2-0 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Erzurumspor FK and Eyüpspor?
Erzurumspor FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Erzurumspor FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Erzurumspor FK 0% BTTS, Eyüpspor 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Erzurumspor FK) and 67% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Erzurumspor FK keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Erzurumspor FK have failed to score in 33% of games; Eyüpspor in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzurumspor FK home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzurumspor FK play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Erzurumspor FK's recent matches and 0% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Erzurumspor FK's recent games and 67% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Erzurumspor FK and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Erzurumspor FK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Erzurumspor FK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Eyüpspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Erzurumspor FK beat Eyüpspor 2-0 at Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Erzurumspor FK 1.62 xG and Eyüpspor 0.94 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Eyüpspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Erzurumspor FK attack 0.71 / defence 1.09 against Eyüpspor attack 0.70 / defence 1.46, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Erzurumspor FK 53% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 22%, with Erzurumspor FK to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Erzurumspor FK 43%, Eyüpspor 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 14%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Erzurumspor FK's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 86% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Erzurumspor FK arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Erzurumspor FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.