Bodrum FK 1-0 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bodrum FK face Kasımpaşa.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bodrum FK welcome Kasımpaşa to Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 27). Kick-off is Friday 7 March 2025 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bodrum FK have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Bodrum FK have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kasımpaşa stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Kasımpaşa away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bodrum FK 1.00 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Bodrum FK, 0 for Kasımpaşa and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended Bodrum FK 0–0 Kasımpaşa — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Bodrum FK in-play and half-time data (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 33% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodrum FK 28% versus Kasımpaşa 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodrum FK 28% | Kasımpaşa 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodrum FK 1.16 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodrum FK attack 0.555 / defence 0.790 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.324 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.186. Bodrum FK's attack rating of 0.555 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Kasımpaşa's defence rating of 1.284 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bodrum FK's projected output up. Kasımpaşa have an above-average attack rating of 1.324, which lifts their away xG to 1.24. Bodrum FK have a tight defence (rating 0.790), which is pulling Kasımpaşa's projected output down. Data: built from Bodrum FK's last 25 games and Kasımpaşa's last 63.
Result probabilities: Bodrum FK 34% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 37%. Fair-value odds: Bodrum FK 2.97 | Draw 3.46 | Kasımpaşa 2.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bodrum FK 20% (last 10 home games) | Kasımpaşa 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodrum FK vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 27 | Venue: Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 7 March 2025 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodrum FK 34% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Bodrum FK 1.16 / Kasımpaşa 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Bodrum FK attack 0.555 / def 0.790 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.324 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Bodrum FK xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Kasımpaşa xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bodrum FK vs Kasımpaşa FAQs
What time does Bodrum FK vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Bodrum FK vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 7 March 2025 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Bodrum FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Bodrum FK 1 - 0 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Bodrum FK vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What competition is Bodrum FK vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Bodrum FK vs Kasımpaşa is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 27) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Bodrum FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Bodrum FK a 34% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodrum FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bodrum FK and Kasımpaşa will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Bodrum FK vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bodrum FK's attack rating (0.56) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Bodrum FK's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bodrum FK's last 25 games and Kasımpaşa's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
34%
2.97
29%
3.46
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Bodrum FK xG
Total xG
2.41
1.24
Kasımpaşa xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
10%
10.27
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.2 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bodrum FK vs Kasımpaşa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodrum FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Bodrum FK and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Bodrum FK and 1.24 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodrum FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bodrum FK's recent record stands at 6W 6D 13L from 25 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 7W 11D 7L across 25 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bodrum FK on 0.96 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bodrum FK have managed 4W 3D 5L from their last 12 home games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 4W 5D 3L across their last 12 away games, a 1.42 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Bodrum FK are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.80 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodrum FK have seen both teams score in 28% of their recent games; Kasımpaşa in 72%.
Defensively: Bodrum FK have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodrum FK
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Bodrum FK (Home) vs Kasımpaşa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bodrum FK
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Bodrum FK vs Kasımpaşa Form FAQs
What form are Bodrum FK and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Bodrum FK have gone 6W 6D 13L in their last 25 games (0.96 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 7W 11D 7L in their last 25 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodrum FK at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Kasımpaşa's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodrum FK at home: 1.25 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Bodrum FK or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodrum FK have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 7 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bodrum FK
1
Draws
0
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Bodrum FK vs Kasımpaşa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Kasımpaşa?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Bodrum FK have won 1, Kasımpaşa have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bodrum FK and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2025: Bodrum FK 1-0 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Bodrum FK and Kasımpaşa?
Bodrum FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodrum FK see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodrum FK 25%, Kasımpaşa 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Bodrum FK) and 83% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Bodrum FK keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bodrum FK have failed to score in 58% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodrum FK home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bodrum FK vs Kasımpaşa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bodrum FK and Kasımpaşa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Bodrum FK's recent matches and 75% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bodrum FK and Kasımpaşa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Bodrum FK's recent games and 83% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bodrum FK and Kasımpaşa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 33% of Bodrum FK's recent matches and 92% of Kasımpaşa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bodrum FK defy the odds to beat Kasımpaşa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodrum FK beat Kasımpaşa 1-0 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 1.16 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.24 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kasımpaşa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.56 / defence 0.79 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.32 / defence 1.28, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 34% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 37%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Bodrum FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 28%, Kasımpaşa 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodrum FK's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bodrum FK 0.96 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bodrum FK win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.