Beşiktaş 1-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vodafone Park plays host to Beşiktaş versus Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beşiktaş have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Beşiktaş's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Vodafone Park this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Vodafone Park than their overall form suggests.
Konyaspor (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Beşiktaş, 1.80 for Konyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Konyaspor in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Beşiktaş, 1 for Konyaspor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Konyaspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 60% versus Konyaspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 54% | Konyaspor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.76 xG and Konyaspor 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 0.960 / defence 1.072 | Konyaspor attack 1.023 / defence 1.509. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.358. Konyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.509 — this is suppressing Beşiktaş's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Beşiktaş games / 37 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 42% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 31%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Konyaspor 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 60% | Konyaspor 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 42% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Beşiktaş 1.76 / Konyaspor 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 0.960 / def 1.072 | Konyaspor attack 1.023 / def 1.509 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Konyaspor xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Beşiktaş 1 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 42% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Beşiktaş and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Konyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Beşiktaş 0W | Draws 0 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Konyaspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Konyaspor (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (1.51x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.02x) against Beşiktaş's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
42%
2.38
27%
3.65
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
3.25
1.49
Konyaspor xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
9%
10.55
5%
18.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.49 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 15W 13D 9L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Konyaspor's form line: 20W 7D 10L from 37 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Beşiktaş against 1.81 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 1.94 PPG from 18 outings (10W 5D 3L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 7W 3D 8L from 18 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Konyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.76 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Konyaspor in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Current Season
Konyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 15W 13D 9L in their last 37 games (1.57 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 20W 7D 10L in their last 37 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Konyaspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.94 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Beşiktaş go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Beşiktaş
2
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 6, Konyaspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Beşiktaş 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Konyaspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 56%, Konyaspor 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Beşiktaş and 67% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Beşiktaş's games and 72% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Beşiktaş's matches and 67% of Konyaspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş and Konyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş and Konyaspor finished level at 1-1 at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.76 xG and Konyaspor 1.49 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 0.96 / defence 1.07 against Konyaspor attack 1.02 / defence 1.51, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 42% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 31%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 54%, Konyaspor 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.57 PPG, Konyaspor 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.