Beşiktaş 1-0 Altay – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Altay encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 26 as Beşiktaş welcome Altay to Vodafone Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 February 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Beşiktaş — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş at Vodafone Park this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Altay have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Altay, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Altay away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Beşiktaş have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Beşiktaş have won 0, Altay 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Altay winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Altay in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 56% versus Altay 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 56% | Altay 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.41 xG and Altay 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 0.980 / defence 1.214 | Altay attack 0.791 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.132. Altay bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Beşiktaş's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Beşiktaş games / 25 Altay games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 43% | Draw 28% | Altay 28%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Altay 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 60% | Altay 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Altay | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 43% | Draw 28% | Altay 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Beşiktaş 1.41 / Altay 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 0.980 / def 1.214 | Altay attack 0.791 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Altay xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Altay kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Altay kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Altay?
Beşiktaş 1 - 0 Altay.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Altay being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Altay part of?
Beşiktaş vs Altay is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Altay?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 43% chance of winning, Altay a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Altay?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Beşiktaş and Altay will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Altay have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Altay?
Record (1 meetings): Beşiktaş 0W | Draws 0 | Altay 1W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Altay in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Altay (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Altay's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Altay's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
43%
2.30
28%
3.54
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.49
1.09
Altay xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
7%
14.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Altay?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Altay expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.09 for Altay, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Altay?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 10W 8D 7L from 25 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Altay, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 15L across 25 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Altay is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beşiktaş by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Altay heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 8W 2D 2L from 12 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Beşiktaş are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Altay's away record stands at 2W 2D 8L across 12 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Altay are on 1.04 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Altay
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Altay in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 10W 8D 7L in their last 25 games (1.52 PPG), while Altay have gone 6W 4D 15L in their last 25 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Altay away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.17 PPG; Altay away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beşiktaş and Altay runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Beşiktaş
0
Draws
1
Altay
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Altay?
From 2 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 1, Altay have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Altay last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when Beşiktaş 1-0 Altay.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Altay are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 50%, Altay 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Beşiktaş and 58% for Altay. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Altay in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Altay away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Altay?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 58% of Altay's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Altay usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Beşiktaş's matches and 58% of Altay's.
Do Beşiktaş and Altay tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Altay in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Altay 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Altay 1-0 at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.41 xG and Altay 1.09 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Altay landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 0.98 / defence 1.21 against Altay attack 0.79 / defence 1.24, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 43% | Draw 28% | Altay 28%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 56%, Altay 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Altay's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Altay (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.