Başakşehir 1-0 Yeni Malatyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Yeni Malatyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Yeni Malatyaspor travel to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to take on Başakşehir. The game is scheduled for Monday 4 April 2022, 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Başakşehir — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Başakşehir at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Yeni Malatyaspor stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Yeni Malatyaspor away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Başakşehir have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Başakşehir have won 1, Yeni Malatyaspor 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 3–1 with Başakşehir winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Yeni Malatyaspor in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 13% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 57% versus Yeni Malatyaspor 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 57% | Yeni Malatyaspor 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.31 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 0.895 / defence 1.087 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.513 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.250. Data: 30 Başakşehir games / 30 Yeni Malatyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 51% | Draw 30% | Yeni Malatyaspor 19%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Yeni Malatyaspor 5.26. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 70% | Yeni Malatyaspor 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Yeni Malatyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 4 Apr 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 51% | Draw 30% | Yeni Malatyaspor 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 37% | xG Başakşehir 1.31 / Yeni Malatyaspor 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 0.895 / def 1.087 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.513 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Yeni Malatyaspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Yeni Malatyaspor kicked off at 18:30 on Monday 4 April 2022 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Başakşehir 1 - 0 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Yeni Malatyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Yeni Malatyaspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Yeni Malatyaspor is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 51% chance of winning, Yeni Malatyaspor a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Başakşehir and Yeni Malatyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Yeni Malatyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Yeni Malatyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Başakşehir 1W | Draws 0 | Yeni Malatyaspor 0W.
What form are Başakşehir and Yeni Malatyaspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 0.90x the league average against Yeni Malatyaspor's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Yeni Malatyaspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
51%
1.97
30%
3.35
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.00
0.70
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
25%
3.96
5%
19.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 12.3 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Yeni Malatyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.70 for Yeni Malatyaspor, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 14W 5D 11L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Yeni Malatyaspor's form line: 5W 5D 20L from 30 games, 0.67 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Başakşehir are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Yeni Malatyaspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 1.87 PPG from 15 outings (9W 1D 5L).
On the road, Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 2W 2D 11L from 15 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Yeni Malatyaspor are on 0.77 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Current Season
Yeni Malatyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Yeni Malatyaspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 14W 5D 11L in their last 30 games (1.57 PPG), while Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 5W 5D 20L in their last 30 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Yeni Malatyaspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.87 PPG; Yeni Malatyaspor away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
0
Draws
0
Yeni Malatyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Yeni Malatyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Yeni Malatyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2022, when Başakşehir 1-0 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Yeni Malatyaspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Yeni Malatyaspor see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Başakşehir 53% BTTS, Yeni Malatyaspor 13%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Başakşehir) and 20% (Yeni Malatyaspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir have failed to score in 27% of games; Yeni Malatyaspor in 73%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Yeni Malatyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 13% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Yeni Malatyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Başakşehir's recent games and 20% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Yeni Malatyaspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Yeni Malatyaspor in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Yeni Malatyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Yeni Malatyaspor 1-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.31 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.70 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.90 / defence 1.09 against Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.51 / defence 1.18, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 51% | Draw 30% | Yeni Malatyaspor 19%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 57%, Yeni Malatyaspor 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.