Başakşehir 2-0 İstanbulspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
İstanbulspor make the trip to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to face Başakşehir in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 February 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Başakşehir have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Başakşehir have posted 5W 2D 3L at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
İstanbulspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for İstanbulspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
İstanbulspor's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Başakşehir's favour (1.80 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Başakşehir lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 2–0 with Başakşehir winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
İstanbulspor — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 39% versus İstanbulspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 41% | İstanbulspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.78 xG and İstanbulspor 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.098 / defence 0.941 | İstanbulspor attack 0.817 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.195. Data: 59 Başakşehir games / 59 İstanbulspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 56% | Draw 27% | İstanbulspor 17%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | İstanbulspor 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 50% | İstanbulspor 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 56% | Draw 27% | İstanbulspor 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Başakşehir 1.78 / İstanbulspor 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.098 / def 0.941 | İstanbulspor attack 0.817 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.92
İstanbulspor xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor?
Başakşehir 2 - 0 İstanbulspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor part of?
Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 56% chance of winning, İstanbulspor a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Başakşehir and İstanbulspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and İstanbulspor?
Record (3 meetings): Başakşehir 2W | Draws 0 | İstanbulspor 1W.
What form are Başakşehir and İstanbulspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. İstanbulspor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 1.10x the league average against İstanbulspor's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — İstanbulspor's attack (0.82x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
56%
1.80
27%
3.67
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.70
0.92
İstanbulspor xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
17%
5.96
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
3%
34.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and İstanbulspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.92 for İstanbulspor, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 26W 14D 19L from 59 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
İstanbulspor, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 34L across 59 games — 0.93 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for İstanbulspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Başakşehir by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over İstanbulspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 17W 4D 8L from 29 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
İstanbulspor's away record stands at 7W 4D 18L across 29 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Başakşehir are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; İstanbulspor are on 1.10 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
İstanbulspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and İstanbulspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 26W 14D 19L in their last 59 games (1.56 PPG), while İstanbulspor have gone 15W 10D 34L in their last 59 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or İstanbulspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.90 PPG; İstanbulspor away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or İstanbulspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, İstanbulspor in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Başakşehir have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against İstanbulspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Başakşehir
0
Draws
1
İstanbulspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and İstanbulspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 3, İstanbulspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and İstanbulspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Başakşehir 2-0 İstanbulspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and İstanbulspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 34%, İstanbulspor 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Başakşehir) and 55% (İstanbulspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Başakşehir have failed to score in 28% of games; İstanbulspor in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / İstanbulspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play İstanbulspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 45% of İstanbulspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs İstanbulspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Başakşehir's recent games and 55% of İstanbulspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and İstanbulspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, İstanbulspor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over İstanbulspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat İstanbulspor 2-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.78 xG and İstanbulspor 0.92 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. İstanbulspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.10 / defence 0.94 against İstanbulspor attack 0.82 / defence 1.09, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 56% | Draw 27% | İstanbulspor 17%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 41%, İstanbulspor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
İstanbulspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.