Başakşehir 1-1 Ümraniyespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Ümraniyespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Ümraniyespor travel to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to take on Başakşehir. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 17 May 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Başakşehir have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ümraniyespor stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Ümraniyespor have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Başakşehir) versus 1.20 (Ümraniyespor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Başakşehir, 0 for Ümraniyespor and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2022, ended 3–1 with Başakşehir winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Başakşehir in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Ümraniyespor in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 36% versus Ümraniyespor 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 39% | Ümraniyespor 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.90 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 0.959 / defence 0.851 | Ümraniyespor attack 0.910 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.376. Data: 69 Başakşehir games / 31 Ümraniyespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 57% | Draw 22% | Ümraniyespor 21%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Ümraniyespor 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 30% | Ümraniyespor 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Ümraniyespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 May 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 57% | Draw 22% | Ümraniyespor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Başakşehir 1.90 / Ümraniyespor 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 0.959 / def 0.851 | Ümraniyespor attack 0.910 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Ümraniyespor xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Ümraniyespor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Ümraniyespor kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 17 May 2023 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Ümraniyespor?
Başakşehir 1 - 1 Ümraniyespor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Ümraniyespor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Ümraniyespor part of?
Başakşehir vs Ümraniyespor is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Ümraniyespor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 57% chance of winning, Ümraniyespor a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Ümraniyespor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Başakşehir and Ümraniyespor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Ümraniyespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Ümraniyespor?
Record (1 meetings): Başakşehir 1W | Draws 0 | Ümraniyespor 0W.
What form are Başakşehir and Ümraniyespor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Ümraniyespor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 0.96x the league average against Ümraniyespor's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ümraniyespor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.50
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.97
1.06
Ümraniyespor xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
15%
6.70
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
3%
32.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Ümraniyespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Ümraniyespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.06 for Ümraniyespor, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Ümraniyespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 15W 6D 10L from 31 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Ümraniyespor, meanwhile, have gone 6W 8D 17L across 31 games — 0.84 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Başakşehir by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ümraniyespor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 10W 1D 4L from 15 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — Başakşehir are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ümraniyespor's away record stands at 3W 4D 8L across 15 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Başakşehir are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Ümraniyespor are on 1.35 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ümraniyespor in 68%.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Current Season
Ümraniyespor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Ümraniyespor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 15W 6D 10L in their last 31 games (1.65 PPG), while Ümraniyespor have gone 6W 8D 17L in their last 31 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Ümraniyespor away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.07 PPG; Ümraniyespor away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Ümraniyespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Ümraniyespor in 6%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Başakşehir and Ümraniyespor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Başakşehir
1
Draws
0
Ümraniyespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Ümraniyespor?
From 2 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 1, Ümraniyespor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Ümraniyespor last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2023, when Başakşehir 1-1 Ümraniyespor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Ümraniyespor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Ümraniyespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 20%, Ümraniyespor 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Başakşehir) and 60% (Ümraniyespor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Başakşehir have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Ümraniyespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Ümraniyespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 73% of Ümraniyespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Ümraniyespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Başakşehir's recent games and 60% of Ümraniyespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Ümraniyespor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Ümraniyespor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir and Ümraniyespor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir and Ümraniyespor finished level at 1-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.90 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.06 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Başakşehir fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.96 / defence 0.85 against Ümraniyespor attack 0.91 / defence 1.17, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 57% | Draw 22% | Ümraniyespor 21%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 39%, Ümraniyespor 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ümraniyespor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.