Başakşehir 0-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Başakşehir face Konyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Konyaspor travel to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to take on Başakşehir in Süper Lig (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 September 2023 at 18:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Başakşehir stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Başakşehir at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Konyaspor have recorded 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Başakşehir) versus 1.70 (Konyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Başakşehir have won 2, Konyaspor 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 29 Jan 2023, ended Başakşehir 2–0 Konyaspor — a Başakşehir win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Başakşehir in-play tendencies (last 38 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Konyaspor in-play tendencies (last 38 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 37% versus Konyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 40% | Konyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.24 xG and Konyaspor 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 0.966 / defence 0.965 | Konyaspor attack 1.071 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.361. Data: built from Başakşehir's last 38 games and Konyaspor's last 39.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 30% | Draw 33% | Konyaspor 37%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 3.39 | Draw 2.99 | Konyaspor 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Başakşehir 40% (last 10 home games) | Konyaspor 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 4 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 30% | Draw 33% | Konyaspor 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Başakşehir 1.24 / Konyaspor 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 0.966 / def 0.965 | Konyaspor attack 1.071 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Konyaspor xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Başakşehir vs Konyaspor FAQs
What time does Başakşehir vs Konyaspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Konyaspor kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Başakşehir 0 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Konyaspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Konyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 4) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 30% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Başakşehir and Konyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Başakşehir vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Başakşehir's last 38 games and Konyaspor's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
30%
3.39
33%
2.99
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.65
1.41
Konyaspor xG
3.39
30%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
7%
13.83
11%
9.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Başakşehir vs Konyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.41 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 18W 8D 12L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Konyaspor's form line: 13W 16D 9L from 38 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.63 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 1.94 PPG from their last 18 home games (11W 2D 5L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 7W 7D 4L from their last 18 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.39 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
Başakşehir (Home) vs Konyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Başakşehir
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
❓ Başakşehir vs Konyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Başakşehir and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 18W 8D 12L in their last 38 games (1.63 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 13W 16D 9L in their last 38 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Konyaspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.94 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Başakşehir
2
Draws
3
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Başakşehir vs Konyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Konyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Başakşehir have won 5, Konyaspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Konyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Konyaspor 0-0 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Konyaspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 28%, Konyaspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Başakşehir) and 67% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Başakşehir have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Başakşehir vs Konyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Başakşehir and Konyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 56% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Başakşehir and Konyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Başakşehir's recent games and 67% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Konyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 75% of Konyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Başakşehir 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Başakşehir 0-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.24 xG and Konyaspor 1.41 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against Konyaspor attack 1.07 / defence 0.97, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 30% | Draw 33% | Konyaspor 37%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 40%, Konyaspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Konyaspor's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.63 PPG, Konyaspor 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Konyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.