Başakşehir 5-2 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Başakşehir host Antalyaspor at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 17:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Başakşehir's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antalyaspor stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Antalyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Başakşehir have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Başakşehir, 2 for Antalyaspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with Başakşehir winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Başakşehir trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Antalyaspor trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 45% versus Antalyaspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 40% | Antalyaspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.40 xG and Antalyaspor 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.253 / defence 1.004 | Antalyaspor attack 0.996 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.313. Başakşehir carry an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — their λ of 2.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Antalyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing Başakşehir's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Başakşehir games / 41 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 61% | Draw 21% | Antalyaspor 19%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Antalyaspor 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.40 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 40% | Antalyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 61% | Draw 21% | Antalyaspor 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 67% | xG Başakşehir 2.40 / Antalyaspor 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.253 / def 1.004 | Antalyaspor attack 0.996 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Antalyaspor xG
67%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 17:15 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor?
Başakşehir 5 - 2 Antalyaspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 61% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Başakşehir and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Antalyaspor?
Record (6 meetings): Başakşehir 3W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 2W.
What form are Başakşehir and Antalyaspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (1.25) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 2.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.87
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.71
1.31
Antalyaspor xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
9%
11.05
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
2%
58.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.31 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 19W 8D 13L from 40 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Antalyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 13L across 40 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Antalyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.62 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 11W 3D 5L from 19 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antalyaspor's away record stands at 4W 5D 10L across 19 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Başakşehir are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.23 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antalyaspor in 62%.
Last 40 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Early Season
Antalyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 19W 8D 13L in their last 40 games (1.62 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 13W 14D 13L in their last 40 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Antalyaspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.89 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Başakşehir and Antalyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Başakşehir won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Başakşehir
3
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 5, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Başakşehir 0-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Antalyaspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 47%, Antalyaspor 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Başakşehir) and 58% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Antalyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Başakşehir's games and 68% of Antalyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Başakşehir's recent games and 58% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Başakşehir run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Antalyaspor 5-2 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 2.40 xG and Antalyaspor 1.31 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Başakşehir beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.25 / defence 1.00 against Antalyaspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.29, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 61% | Draw 21% | Antalyaspor 19%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 40%, Antalyaspor 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.62 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.