Antalyaspor 2-1 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Antalyaspor face Rizespor.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Corendon Airlines Park plays host to Antalyaspor versus Rizespor in Süper Lig (matchday 27). Kick-off: Saturday 8 March 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Current Form
Antalyaspor's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Antalyaspor have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Rizespor have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Rizespor away from home: 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Antalyaspor, 1.30 for Rizespor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Antalyaspor's last 10 home games and Rizespor's last 10 away games) — Antalyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rizespor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Antalyaspor, 3 for Rizespor and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2024, ended Antalyaspor 1–2 Rizespor — a Rizespor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Rizespor — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 59% versus Rizespor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 49% | Rizespor 59%). Note also that Rizespor surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Antalyaspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.56 xG and Rizespor 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.841 / defence 1.033 | Rizespor attack 1.099 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.172. Data: built from Antalyaspor's last 63 games and Rizespor's last 63.
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 42% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 32%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.36 | Draw 3.93 | Rizespor 3.11. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Antalyaspor's last 10 home games and Rizespor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Antalyaspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Rizespor 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 27 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Saturday 8 March 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 42% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Antalyaspor 1.56 / Rizespor 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.841 / def 1.033 | Rizespor attack 1.099 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Rizespor xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Antalyaspor vs Rizespor FAQs
What time does Antalyaspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Rizespor?
Antalyaspor 2 - 1 Rizespor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Rizespor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Rizespor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 27) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 42% chance of winning, Rizespor a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Antalyaspor and Rizespor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Antalyaspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Antalyaspor's attack rating (0.84) and Rizespor's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (1.10x) against Antalyaspor's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from Antalyaspor's last 63 games and Rizespor's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
42%
2.36
25%
3.93
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.90
1.33
Rizespor xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
7%
14.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Antalyaspor vs Rizespor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.33 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 20W 19D 24L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Rizespor's form line: 24W 11D 28L from 63 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.32 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.71 PPG from their last 31 home games (14W 11D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Rizespor have gone 8W 3D 20L from their last 31 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.29 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
Antalyaspor (Home) vs Rizespor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Antalyaspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Antalyaspor vs Rizespor Form FAQs
What form are Antalyaspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 20W 19D 24L in their last 63 games (1.25 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 24W 11D 28L in their last 63 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Rizespor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.71 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Antalyaspor and Rizespor, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 8 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Rizespor have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rizespor won Rizespor 3-0 Antalyaspor on 14 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
1
Draws
5
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Antalyaspor vs Rizespor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Rizespor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Antalyaspor have won 2, Rizespor have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Rizespor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2026: Rizespor 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Rizespor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 58%, Rizespor 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Antalyaspor) and 68% (Rizespor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 29% of games; Rizespor in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Antalyaspor vs Rizespor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Antalyaspor and Rizespor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 52% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Antalyaspor and Rizespor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Antalyaspor's matches and 68% of Rizespor's.
Do Antalyaspor and Rizespor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 90% of Rizespor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Rizespor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Rizespor 2-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.56 xG and Rizespor 1.33 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.84 / defence 1.03 against Rizespor attack 1.10 / defence 1.13, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 42% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 32%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 49%, Rizespor 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Rizespor's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.25 PPG, Rizespor 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.