Antalyaspor 0-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Corendon Airlines Park plays host to Antalyaspor versus Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Corendon Airlines Park, Antalyaspor have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rizespor have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor away from home this season: 2W 0D 4L from 6 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Antalyaspor, 1.60 for Rizespor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Antalyaspor 1W, Rizespor 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2022, ended 1–2 with Rizespor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games).
Rizespor — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 50% versus Rizespor 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Antalyaspor 33% | Rizespor 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 2.10 xG and Rizespor 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.000 / defence 0.964 | Rizespor attack 0.868 / defence 1.399. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.195. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.399 — this is suppressing Antalyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Antalyaspor games / 12 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 62% | Draw 22% | Rizespor 16%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Rizespor 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Antalyaspor (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 50% | Rizespor 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 62% | Draw 22% | Rizespor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG Antalyaspor 2.10 / Rizespor 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.000 / def 0.964 | Rizespor attack 0.868 / def 1.399 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Rizespor xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Rizespor?
Antalyaspor 0 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Rizespor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 62% chance of winning, Rizespor a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Antalyaspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Rizespor?
Record (2 meetings): Antalyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Rizespor 1W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Rizespor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Rizespor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Antalyaspor's attack rating (1.00) and Rizespor's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 2.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.87x) against Antalyaspor's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 48/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
62%
1.63
22%
4.45
16%
6.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
3.10
1.00
Rizespor xG
1.63
62%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
6.24
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
12%
8.15
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
2%
50.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.00 for Rizespor, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 5W 3D 4L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rizespor's form line: 5W 2D 5L from 12 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.42 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.83 PPG from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L).
On the road, Rizespor have gone 2W 0D 4L from 6 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 0.92 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 games (1.50 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 5W 2D 5L in their last 12 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Rizespor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.83 PPG; Rizespor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Rizespor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Rizespor go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rizespor won 3-0 on 14 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
1
Draws
5
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Rizespor have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Rizespor 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Rizespor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 50%, Rizespor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Antalyaspor) and 83% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Rizespor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Antalyaspor's games and 67% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 83% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Antalyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 13, as Antalyaspor and Rizespor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 2.10 xG and Rizespor 1.00 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Antalyaspor fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Rizespor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.00 / defence 0.96 against Rizespor attack 0.87 / defence 1.40, drawn from 48/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 62% | Draw 22% | Rizespor 16%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 33%, Rizespor 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rizespor's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.50 PPG, Rizespor 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.