Ankaragücü 1-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Beşiktaş travel to Eryaman Stadyumu to take on Ankaragücü. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 December 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ankaragücü — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ankaragücü, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ankaragücü at Eryaman Stadyumu this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beşiktaş stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ankaragücü at 1.40 PPG versus Beşiktaş's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Ankaragücü have won 0, Beşiktaş 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2023, ended 1–2 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ankaragücü in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ankaragücü 61% versus Beşiktaş 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ankaragücü 55% | Beşiktaş 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ankaragücü 1.50 xG and Beşiktaş 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ankaragücü attack 0.889 / defence 1.039 | Beşiktaş attack 1.241 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.247. Beşiktaş have an above-average attack strength of 1.241 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Ankaragücü games / 49 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ankaragücü 35% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 40%. Fair-value odds: Ankaragücü 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Beşiktaş 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Ankaragücü 50% | Beşiktaş 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ankaragücü 35% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Ankaragücü 1.50 / Beşiktaş 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Ankaragücü attack 0.889 / def 1.039 | Beşiktaş attack 1.241 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Ankaragücü xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Beşiktaş xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş?
Ankaragücü 1 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What competition is Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş part of?
Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Ankaragücü a 35% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Ankaragücü and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Beşiktaş?
Record (2 meetings): Ankaragücü 0W | Draws 0 | Beşiktaş 2W.
What form are Ankaragücü and Beşiktaş in?
Ankaragücü (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ankaragücü's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Ankaragücü's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
35%
2.85
25%
3.94
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Ankaragücü xG
Total xG
3.11
1.61
Beşiktaş xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
7%
14.24
9%
11.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Ankaragücü and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Ankaragücü and 1.61 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ankaragücü's recent record stands at 16W 10D 23L from 49 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Ankaragücü is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş, meanwhile, have gone 31W 10D 8L across 49 games — 2.10 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beşiktaş by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ankaragücü heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ankaragücü have managed 8W 6D 10L from 24 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beşiktaş's away record stands at 13W 4D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ankaragücü are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 2.00 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ankaragücü
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ankaragücü and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Ankaragücü have gone 16W 10D 23L in their last 49 games (1.18 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 31W 10D 8L in their last 49 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ankaragücü at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ankaragücü at home: 1.25 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Ankaragücü or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ankaragücü have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ankaragücü's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ankaragücü
1
Draws
3
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Beşiktaş?
From 4 meetings on record, Ankaragücü have won 0, Beşiktaş have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ankaragücü and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2024, when Beşiktaş 2-0 Ankaragücü.
Who has won more matches between Ankaragücü and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ankaragücü 58%, Beşiktaş 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Ankaragücü) and 58% (Beşiktaş). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ankaragücü have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ankaragücü home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ankaragücü play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Ankaragücü's games and 62% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Ankaragücü's matches and 58% of Beşiktaş's.
Do Ankaragücü and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Ankaragücü have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ankaragücü and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ankaragücü and Beşiktaş finished level at 1-1 at Eryaman Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ankaragücü 1.50 xG and Beşiktaş 1.61 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ankaragücü attack 0.89 / defence 1.04 against Beşiktaş attack 1.24 / defence 1.09, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ankaragücü 35% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 40%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ankaragücü 55%, Beşiktaş 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ankaragücü's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.