Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Alanya Oba Stadium plays host to Alanyaspor versus Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 18 April 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Alanyaspor have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor at Alanya Oba Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kasımpaşa (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Kasımpaşa arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Kasımpaşa in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Kasımpaşa, who have claimed 7 wins from 10 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Kasımpaşa winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Kasımpaşa have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Alanyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 60% versus Kasımpaşa 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 49% | Kasımpaşa 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.18 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.853 / defence 0.940 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.960 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Data: 43 Alanyaspor games / 44 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 37% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 35%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Kasımpaşa 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kasımpaşa (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Alanyaspor 60% | Kasımpaşa 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Alanya Oba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 37% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Alanyaspor 1.18 / Kasımpaşa 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.853 / def 0.940 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.960 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Kasımpaşa xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 18 April 2027 at Alanya Oba Stadium.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 37% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (10 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 2 | Kasımpaşa 7W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (0.85) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (0.96x) against Alanyaspor's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
37%
2.70
28%
3.53
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.31
1.13
Kasımpaşa xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
12%
8.38
11%
9.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.13 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Alanyaspor have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 10W 19D 14L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 12W 16D 15L from 43 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Alanyaspor against 1.21 for Kasımpaşa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Alanyaspor have posted 1.33 PPG from 21 outings (7W 7D 7L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 6W 6D 9L from 21 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.09 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 10W 19D 14L in their last 43 games (1.14 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 12W 16D 15L in their last 43 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.33 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Kasımpaşa go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kasımpaşa won 4-1 on 4 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
7
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 1, Kasımpaşa have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Kasımpaşa 1-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 48%, Kasımpaşa 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Alanyaspor) and 57% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 62% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 57% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.