Alanyaspor 1-1 Giresunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu plays host to Alanyaspor versus Giresunspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 2 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Alanyaspor (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Alanyaspor have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Giresunspor have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Giresunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Giresunspor have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Alanyaspor. A 0.50 PPG lead over Giresunspor (1.70 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Alanyaspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Giresunspor in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Alanyaspor lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2022, ended 3–1 with Alanyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Alanyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Giresunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 59% versus Giresunspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 59% | Giresunspor 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.53 xG and Giresunspor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.075 / defence 1.152 | Giresunspor attack 0.830 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.256. Data: 45 Alanyaspor games / 44 Giresunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 45% | Draw 25% | Giresunspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Giresunspor 3.33. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 70% | Giresunspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 45% | Draw 25% | Giresunspor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Alanyaspor 1.53 / Giresunspor 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.075 / def 1.152 | Giresunspor attack 0.830 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Giresunspor xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Alanyaspor 1 - 1 Giresunspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 45% chance of winning, Giresunspor a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Alanyaspor and Giresunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Giresunspor?
Record (2 meetings): Alanyaspor 2W | Draws 0 | Giresunspor 0W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Giresunspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Giresunspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Giresunspor's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Giresunspor's attack (0.83x) against Alanyaspor's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
45%
2.23
25%
3.96
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.73
1.20
Giresunspor xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
13%
7.43
7%
15.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Giresunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.20 for Giresunspor, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alanyaspor come into this having played 44 games, going 20W 9D 15L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Giresunspor sit at 1.18 PPG from 44 outings (14W 10D 20L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Giresunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Alanyaspor against 1.18 for Giresunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Alanyaspor's home form reads 10W 5D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Giresunspor have taken 1.05 points per game from 22 outings (6W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Giresunspor are on 1.05 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Early Season
Giresunspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Giresunspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 20W 9D 15L in their last 44 games (1.57 PPG), while Giresunspor have gone 14W 10D 20L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Giresunspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.59 PPG; Giresunspor away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Giresunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
0
Giresunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Giresunspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 2, Giresunspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Giresunspor last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2023, when Giresunspor 2-2 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Giresunspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Giresunspor see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 64%, Giresunspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Alanyaspor) and 41% (Giresunspor).
On the defensive side: Giresunspor in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Giresunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Giresunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Alanyaspor's games and 50% of Giresunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Giresunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 41% of Giresunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Giresunspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Giresunspor in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor and Giresunspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor and Giresunspor finished level at 1-1 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.53 xG and Giresunspor 1.20 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.07 / defence 1.15 against Giresunspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.00, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 45% | Draw 25% | Giresunspor 30%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 59%, Giresunspor 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Giresunspor's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.57 PPG, Giresunspor 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.