Alanyaspor 3-0 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 48% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Alanyaspor welcome Gaziantep FK to GAIN Park Stadium in Süper Lig (matchday 16). Kick-off is Saturday 14 December 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Alanyaspor stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gaziantep FK — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gaziantep FK away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alanyaspor 1.20 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Alanyaspor's last 10 home games and Gaziantep FK's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Alanyaspor: 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 1 for Gaziantep FK, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Apr 2024, ended Alanyaspor 3–0 Gaziantep FK — a Alanyaspor win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Alanyaspor and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 2.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Gaziantep FK trading profile (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 56% versus Gaziantep FK 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 46% | Gaziantep FK 54%). Note also that Gaziantep FK surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Alanyaspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.81 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.860 / defence 0.991 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.094 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.205. Gaziantep FK's defence rating of 1.301 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Alanyaspor's projected output up. Data: built from Alanyaspor's last 52 games and Gaziantep FK's last 52.
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 48% | Draw 25% | Gaziantep FK 27%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.07 | Draw 3.97 | Gaziantep FK 3.76. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.81 / 1.31) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 48% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Alanyaspor 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Alanyaspor's last 10 home games and Gaziantep FK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alanyaspor 70% (last 10 home games) | Gaziantep FK 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 16 | Venue: GAIN Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 December 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 48% | Draw 25% | Gaziantep FK 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Alanyaspor 1.81 / Gaziantep FK 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.860 / def 0.991 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.094 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Gaziantep FK xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK FAQs
What time does Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 14 December 2024 at GAIN Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Alanyaspor 3 - 0 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at GAIN Park Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 16) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 48% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Gaziantep FK's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Alanyaspor's last 52 games and Gaziantep FK's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
48%
2.07
25%
3.97
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.12
1.31
Gaziantep FK xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
4%
22.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.31 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor come into this having played 52 games, going 15W 21D 16L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Gaziantep FK sit at 1.19 PPG from 52 outings (17W 11D 24L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.27 PPG, Gaziantep FK on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alanyaspor's home form reads 9W 11D 6L across their last 26 home games, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Gaziantep FK have taken 0.92 points per game from their last 26 away games (7W 3D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.35 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Alanyaspor (Home) vs Gaziantep FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alanyaspor
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK Form FAQs
What form are Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 15W 21D 16L in their last 52 games (1.27 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 17W 11D 24L in their last 52 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.46 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 May 2022, when Alanyaspor won Alanyaspor 3-0 Gaziantep FK.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Gaziantep FK specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
1
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Alanyaspor have won 6, Gaziantep FK have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Gaziantep FK 1-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 65%, Gaziantep FK 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Alanyaspor and 69% for Gaziantep FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Alanyaspor's games and 62% of Gaziantep FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Alanyaspor's matches and 69% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 81% of Gaziantep FK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Alanyaspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Gaziantep FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Gaziantep FK 3-0 at GAIN Park Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.81 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.31 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gaziantep FK landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.86 / defence 0.99 against Gaziantep FK attack 1.09 / defence 1.30, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 48% | Draw 25% | Gaziantep FK 27%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 46%, Gaziantep FK 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.27 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.