Alanyaspor 1-1 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alanyaspor and Başakşehir meet at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 January 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Alanyaspor have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's home record at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu: 4W 2D 3L from 9 Süper Lig appearances (1.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Başakşehir (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Başakşehir have posted 3W 2D 4L from 9 away outings — 1.22 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.22 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Başakşehir are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Alanyaspor, 0 for Başakşehir and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Alanyaspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Alanyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Başakşehir goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 53% versus Başakşehir 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 47% | Başakşehir 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.14 xG and Başakşehir 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.008 / defence 1.347 | Başakşehir attack 0.972 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.104. Data: 19 Alanyaspor games / 19 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 29% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 43%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Başakşehir 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 56% | Başakşehir 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jan 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 29% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Alanyaspor 1.14 / Başakşehir 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.008 / def 1.347 | Başakşehir attack 0.972 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Başakşehir xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 January 2022 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Alanyaspor 1 - 1 Başakşehir.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 29% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Alanyaspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Başakşehir?
Record (1 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Başakşehir 0W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Başakşehir in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Başakşehir (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (1.01) and Başakşehir's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (0.97x) against Alanyaspor's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
29%
3.48
28%
3.56
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.58
1.45
Başakşehir xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
7%
14.76
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.45 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Alanyaspor come into this having played 19 games, going 8W 4D 7L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Başakşehir sit at 1.74 PPG from 19 outings (10W 3D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Alanyaspor against 1.74 for Başakşehir. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Alanyaspor's home form reads 4W 2D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Başakşehir have taken 1.22 points per game from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Başakşehir's season.
Attack vs Defence
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.53 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 8W 4D 7L in their last 19 games (1.47 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 10W 3D 6L in their last 19 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.56 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
4
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 4, Başakşehir have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Alanyaspor 1-2 Başakşehir.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 56%, Başakşehir 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Alanyaspor) and 67% (Başakşehir). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Alanyaspor's games and 67% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Alanyaspor's matches and 67% of Başakşehir's.
Do Alanyaspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor and Başakşehir share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, as Alanyaspor and Başakşehir drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.14 xG and Başakşehir 1.45 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.01 / defence 1.35 against Başakşehir attack 0.97 / defence 0.97, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 29% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 43%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 47%, Başakşehir 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.47 PPG, Başakşehir 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.