Alanyaspor 3-2 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Adana Demirspor travel to GAIN Park Stadium to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 February 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at GAIN Park Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Adana Demirspor — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Adana Demirspor have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Alanyaspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alanyaspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Adana Demirspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Alanyaspor, 3 for Adana Demirspor and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 2–0 with Alanyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Adana Demirspor trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 54% versus Adana Demirspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 46% | Adana Demirspor 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.94 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.078 / defence 1.133 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.897 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.211. Data: 61 Alanyaspor games / 61 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 53% | Draw 23% | Adana Demirspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Adana Demirspor 4.17. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 60% | Adana Demirspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: GAIN Park Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Feb 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 53% | Draw 23% | Adana Demirspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Alanyaspor 1.94 / Adana Demirspor 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.078 / def 1.133 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.897 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Adana Demirspor xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 23 February 2025 at GAIN Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Alanyaspor 3 - 2 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at GAIN Park Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 53% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
Record (7 meetings): Alanyaspor 2W | Draws 2 | Adana Demirspor 3W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
53%
1.87
23%
4.34
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.17
1.23
Adana Demirspor xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
3%
29.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.23 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor come into this having played 61 games, going 19W 23D 19L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 0.87 PPG from 61 outings (12W 17D 32L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Alanyaspor's home form reads 12W 11D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 0.60 points per game from 30 outings (2W 12D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.23 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 19W 23D 19L in their last 61 games (1.31 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 12W 17D 32L in their last 61 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.57 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Alanyaspor have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Adana Demirspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
3
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 3, Adana Demirspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Alanyaspor 3-2 Adana Demirspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 63%, Adana Demirspor 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Alanyaspor) and 53% (Adana Demirspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Alanyaspor's games and 63% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Alanyaspor's matches and 53% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alanyaspor edge out Adana Demirspor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Adana Demirspor 3-2 at GAIN Park Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.94 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.23 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.08 / defence 1.13 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.12, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 53% | Draw 23% | Adana Demirspor 24%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 46%, Adana Demirspor 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.