Adana Demirspor 2-3 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Adana Demirspor at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Sivasspor travel to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to take on Adana Demirspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 March 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Adana Demirspor have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Adana Demirspor at Yeni Adana Stadyumu this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yeni Adana Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sivasspor — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Sivasspor have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Adana Demirspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Adana Demirspor have won 0, Sivasspor 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Adana Demirspor trading profile (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games).
Sivasspor trading profile (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 50% versus Sivasspor 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 43% | Sivasspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.40 xG and Sivasspor 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.903 / defence 0.805 | Sivasspor attack 0.683 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.203. Sivasspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing Adana Demirspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Adana Demirspor games / 28 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 54% | Draw 28% | Sivasspor 17%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Sivasspor 5.88. Adana Demirspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Adana Demirspor are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 20% | Sivasspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 54% | Draw 28% | Sivasspor 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 37% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.40 / Sivasspor 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.903 / def 0.805 | Sivasspor attack 0.683 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Sivasspor xG
37%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Adana Demirspor 2 - 3 Sivasspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 54% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor?
Record (1 meetings): Adana Demirspor 0W | Draws 1 | Sivasspor 0W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Adana Demirspor's attack at 0.90x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
54%
1.84
28%
3.53
17%
5.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.06
0.66
Sivasspor xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
5.76
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
28%
3.57
4%
23.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 11.8 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 0.66 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Adana Demirspor come into this having played 28 games, going 12W 9D 7L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 1.21 PPG from 28 outings (8W 10D 10L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Adana Demirspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Adana Demirspor's home form reads 6W 5D 2L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Sivasspor have taken 1.08 points per game from 13 outings (4W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
Sivasspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 12W 9D 7L in their last 28 games (1.61 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 8W 10D 10L in their last 28 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.77 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sivasspor have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2025, when Sivasspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Adana Demirspor
2
Draws
3
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 3, Sivasspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Sivasspor 5-1 Adana Demirspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Adana Demirspor see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 31%, Sivasspor 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Adana Demirspor and 46% for Sivasspor.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Adana Demirspor have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Sivasspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 54% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 46% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sivasspor defy the odds to beat Adana Demirspor 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Adana Demirspor 2-3 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.40 xG and Sivasspor 0.66 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sivasspor outscored their 0.66 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.90 / defence 0.81 against Sivasspor attack 0.68 / defence 1.28, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 54% | Draw 28% | Sivasspor 17%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Sivasspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 43%, Sivasspor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Sivasspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.