Adana Demirspor 0-0 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Adana Demirspor and Kayserispor meet at Yeni Adana Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Adana Demirspor (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana Demirspor have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Adana Demirspor are significantly better at Yeni Adana Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Kayserispor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Kayserispor away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Adana Demirspor, 0 for Kayserispor and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Adana Demirspor — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Kayserispor — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 63% versus Kayserispor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 61% | Kayserispor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 2.03 xG and Kayserispor 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.151 / defence 1.026 | Kayserispor attack 0.887 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.202. Data: 67 Adana Demirspor games / 67 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 58% | Draw 24% | Kayserispor 19%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Kayserispor 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Adana Demirspor (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Adana Demirspor are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 60% | Kayserispor 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 58% | Draw 24% | Kayserispor 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Adana Demirspor 2.03 / Kayserispor 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.151 / def 1.026 | Kayserispor attack 0.887 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Kayserispor xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor?
Adana Demirspor 0 - 0 Kayserispor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 58% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Kayserispor?
Record (5 meetings): Adana Demirspor 1W | Draws 4 | Kayserispor 0W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Kayserispor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Kayserispor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Adana Demirspor's attack rating (1.15) and Kayserispor's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kayserispor's attack (0.89x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
58%
1.74
24%
4.19
19%
5.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
3.12
1.09
Kayserispor xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
5.40
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
13%
7.59
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
2%
40.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.09 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 67 outings, Adana Demirspor have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 29W 21D 17L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Kayserispor's form line: 25W 14D 28L from 67 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Adana Demirspor against 1.33 for Kayserispor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Adana Demirspor have posted 2.12 PPG from 33 outings (21W 7D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Adana Demirspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Kayserispor have gone 10W 6D 17L from 33 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.36 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
Kayserispor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 29W 21D 17L in their last 67 games (1.61 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 25W 14D 28L in their last 67 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 2.12 PPG; Kayserispor away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Adana Demirspor have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Adana Demirspor
6
Draws
1
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Kayserispor?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 1, Kayserispor have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Adana Demirspor 0-2 Kayserispor.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 54%, Kayserispor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Adana Demirspor and 61% for Kayserispor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Kayserispor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Kayserispor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Adana Demirspor's games and 58% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 61% of Kayserispor's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Adana Demirspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, as Adana Demirspor and Kayserispor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 2.03 xG and Kayserispor 1.09 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Adana Demirspor fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Kayserispor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.15 / defence 1.03 against Kayserispor attack 0.89 / defence 1.20, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 58% | Draw 24% | Kayserispor 19%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 61%, Kayserispor 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Kayserispor's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Adana Demirspor 1.61 PPG, Kayserispor 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.