Adana Demirspor 0-1 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Adana Demirspor at 63% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor meet at Yeni Adana Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 January 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Adana Demirspor have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana Demirspor have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yeni Adana Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Adana Demirspor are significantly better at Yeni Adana Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Adana Demirspor, 0 for Hatayspor and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Adana Demirspor half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Hatayspor half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 62% versus Hatayspor 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 60% | Hatayspor 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.91 xG and Hatayspor 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.201 / defence 0.963 | Hatayspor attack 0.631 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.202. Data: 58 Adana Demirspor games / 58 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 63% | Draw 25% | Hatayspor 12%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 1.59 | Draw 4.00 | Hatayspor 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Adana Demirspor (63%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Adana Demirspor as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 50% | Hatayspor 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 63% | Draw 25% | Hatayspor 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 46% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.91 / Hatayspor 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.201 / def 0.963 | Hatayspor attack 0.631 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Hatayspor xG
46%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor?
Adana Demirspor 0 - 1 Hatayspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 63% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 12% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor?
Record (5 meetings): Adana Demirspor 2W | Draws 3 | Hatayspor 0W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Hatayspor (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Adana Demirspor's attack at 1.20x the league average against Hatayspor's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.63x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
63%
1.58
25%
4.01
12%
8.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.64
0.73
Hatayspor xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
8.60
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
15%
6.76
Win to Nil
31%
3.27
2%
58.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 0.73 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Adana Demirspor come into this having played 58 games, going 27W 19D 12L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 0.78 PPG from 58 outings (10W 15D 33L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Adana Demirspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Adana Demirspor's home form reads 19W 7D 3L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — Adana Demirspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.48 points per game from 29 outings (3W 5D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 0.79 scored and 1.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 27W 19D 12L in their last 58 games (1.72 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 10W 15D 33L in their last 58 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 2.21 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.48 PPG.
Have Adana Demirspor or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hatayspor won 0-5 on 17 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Adana Demirspor have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Adana Demirspor
3
Draws
2
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 3, Hatayspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when Adana Demirspor 0-5 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 55%, Hatayspor 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Adana Demirspor and 66% for Hatayspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Hatayspor in 69%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 28% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 66% of Hatayspor's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hatayspor defy the odds to beat Adana Demirspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Adana Demirspor 0-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.91 xG and Hatayspor 0.73 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Adana Demirspor fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.20 / defence 0.96 against Hatayspor attack 0.63 / defence 1.06, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 63% | Draw 25% | Hatayspor 12%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Hatayspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 60%, Hatayspor 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Hatayspor's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with Hatayspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Hatayspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.