Adana Demirspor 7-0 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Adana Demirspor at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Göztepe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 38 as Adana Demirspor welcome Göztepe to Yeni Adana Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Adana Demirspor — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Adana Demirspor's home record at Yeni Adana Stadyumu: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Adana Demirspor are significantly better at Yeni Adana Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 0W 1D 9L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Göztepe have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Adana Demirspor have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (0.70 vs 0.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Adana Demirspor, 0 for Göztepe and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Adana Demirspor in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Göztepe in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Adana Demirspor 54% and Göztepe 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 51% | Göztepe 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.97 xG and Göztepe 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.045 / defence 1.136 | Göztepe attack 0.767 / defence 1.561. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.369. Göztepe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.561 — this is suppressing Adana Demirspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Adana Demirspor games / 37 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 53% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 21%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Göztepe 4.76. Adana Demirspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Adana Demirspor as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 70% | Göztepe 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 53% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.97 / Göztepe 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.045 / def 1.136 | Göztepe attack 0.767 / def 1.561 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Göztepe xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Göztepe kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Göztepe kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Göztepe?
Adana Demirspor 7 - 0 Göztepe.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Göztepe part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 53% chance of winning, Göztepe a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Göztepe?
Record (1 meetings): Adana Demirspor 0W | Draws 1 | Göztepe 0W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Göztepe in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Göztepe (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Adana Demirspor's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Göztepe's defensive record (1.56x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
53%
1.87
26%
3.88
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
3.16
1.19
Göztepe xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
14%
7.15
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
3%
34.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.19 for Göztepe, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Adana Demirspor's recent record stands at 14W 10D 13L from 37 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Göztepe, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 23L across 37 games — 0.76 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Adana Demirspor by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Göztepe heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Adana Demirspor have managed 8W 5D 5L from 18 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Göztepe's away record stands at 3W 5D 10L across 18 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.08 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe in 68%.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
Göztepe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 14W 10D 13L in their last 37 games (1.41 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 7W 7D 23L in their last 37 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Göztepe away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.61 PPG; Göztepe away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Göztepe have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when Adana Demirspor won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Adana Demirspor
1
Draws
2
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Göztepe?
From 4 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 1, Göztepe have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Adana Demirspor 1-2 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Göztepe?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Adana Demirspor at 50%, Göztepe at 89%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Adana Demirspor and 78% for Göztepe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Adana Demirspor's games and 89% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 78% of Göztepe's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Göztepe tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Adana Demirspor run riot with a 7-0 hammering of Göztepe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Göztepe 7-0 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.97 xG and Göztepe 1.19 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 7-0 for 7 actual goals. Adana Demirspor beat their projection by 5.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Göztepe landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.04 / defence 1.14 against Göztepe attack 0.77 / defence 1.56, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 53% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 21%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 51%, Göztepe 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Göztepe's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.