Trabzonspor 0-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 14 as Trabzonspor welcome Kayserispor to Papara Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 December 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor at Papara Park this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Papara Park. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Papara Park than their overall form suggests.
Kayserispor — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kayserispor have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Trabzonspor at 2.00 PPG versus Kayserispor's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Trabzonspor, 1 for Kayserispor and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2023, ended 3–4 with Kayserispor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Kayserispor in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 56% versus Kayserispor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 62% | Kayserispor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.93 xG and Kayserispor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.075 / defence 0.841 | Kayserispor attack 1.138 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.248. Data: 48 Trabzonspor games / 49 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 53% | Draw 24% | Kayserispor 22%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Kayserispor 4.55. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 50% | Kayserispor 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 53% | Draw 24% | Kayserispor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Trabzonspor 1.93 / Kayserispor 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.075 / def 0.841 | Kayserispor attack 1.138 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Kayserispor xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor?
Trabzonspor 0 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 53% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Trabzonspor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Kayserispor?
Record (4 meetings): Trabzonspor 3W | Draws 0 | Kayserispor 1W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Kayserispor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Kayserispor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Trabzonspor's attack rating (1.07) and Kayserispor's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kayserispor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.09
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.12
1.20
Kayserispor xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
15%
6.88
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
3%
30.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.1 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.20 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trabzonspor's recent record stands at 23W 8D 17L from 48 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kayserispor, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 17L across 48 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trabzonspor on 1.60 PPG, Kayserispor on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Trabzonspor have managed 16W 4D 3L from 23 games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kayserispor's away record stands at 8W 5D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.52 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 23W 8D 17L in their last 48 games (1.60 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 21W 10D 17L in their last 48 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.26 PPG; Kayserispor away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Kayserispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Kayserispor in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Trabzonspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Oct 2025, when Trabzonspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Kayserispor specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
2
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Kayserispor?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 6, Kayserispor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2026, when Kayserispor 1-3 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Kayserispor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 44%, Kayserispor 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Trabzonspor and 70% for Kayserispor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Kayserispor in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Kayserispor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 65% of Kayserispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Trabzonspor's matches and 70% of Kayserispor's.
Do Trabzonspor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kayserispor defy the odds to beat Trabzonspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Trabzonspor 0-1 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.93 xG and Kayserispor 1.20 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Trabzonspor fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.07 / defence 0.84 against Kayserispor attack 1.14 / defence 1.15, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 53% | Draw 24% | Kayserispor 22%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Kayserispor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 62%, Kayserispor 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Kayserispor's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.60 PPG, Kayserispor 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.