Trabzonspor 4-2 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Trabzonspor face Gaziantep FK.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Gaziantep FK travel to Papara Park to take on Trabzonspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trabzonspor stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Trabzonspor's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Papara Park this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Papara Park this season.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Gaziantep FK have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gaziantep FK's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Trabzonspor have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Trabzonspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Gaziantep FK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Trabzonspor hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Gaziantep FK, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 3–1 with Trabzonspor winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Trabzonspor and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Gaziantep FK in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 57% versus Gaziantep FK 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 59% | Gaziantep FK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.91 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.116 / defence 1.102 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.004 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.219. Data: 68 Trabzonspor games / 68 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 49% | Draw 25% | Gaziantep FK 26%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Gaziantep FK 3.85. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 60% | Gaziantep FK 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 49% | Draw 25% | Gaziantep FK 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Trabzonspor 1.91 / Gaziantep FK 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.116 / def 1.102 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.004 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Gaziantep FK xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Trabzonspor 4 - 2 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 49% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK?
Record (4 meetings): Trabzonspor 3W | Draws 1 | Gaziantep FK 0W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.12x the league average against Gaziantep FK's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
49%
2.03
25%
3.96
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.26
1.35
Gaziantep FK xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
15%
6.76
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
4%
26.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.35 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Trabzonspor have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 33W 10D 25L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Gaziantep FK's form line: 15W 14D 39L from 68 games, 0.87 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gaziantep FK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Trabzonspor have posted 2.00 PPG from 34 outings (21W 5D 8L).
On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 7W 5D 22L from 34 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.00 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Current Season
Gaziantep FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 33W 10D 25L in their last 68 games (1.60 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 15W 14D 39L in their last 68 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Gaziantep FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Gaziantep FK in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2021, when Trabzonspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Gaziantep FK specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Trabzonspor
3
Draws
0
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 9 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 6, Gaziantep FK have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-2 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 47%, Gaziantep FK 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Trabzonspor) and 62% (Gaziantep FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Gaziantep FK in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Gaziantep FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 44% of Gaziantep FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Trabzonspor's matches and 62% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Gaziantep FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Gaziantep FK 4-2 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.91 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.35 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.12 / defence 1.10 against Gaziantep FK attack 1.00 / defence 1.16, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 49% | Draw 25% | Gaziantep FK 26%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 59%, Gaziantep FK 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.