Trabzonspor 2-0 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trabzonspor host Adana Demirspor at Medical Park Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 December 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Trabzonspor — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Medical Park Stadyumu, Trabzonspor have gone 4W 2D 0L this season (6 games, 2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.17 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Adana Demirspor have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Adana Demirspor have posted 2W 3D 2L from 7 away outings — 1.29 PPG. Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.29 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Trabzonspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 83% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Trabzonspor trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games).
Adana Demirspor trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 64% and Adana Demirspor 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 64% | Adana Demirspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.80 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.195 / defence 1.123 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.108 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.091. Adana Demirspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing Trabzonspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Trabzonspor games / 14 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 47% | Draw 25% | Adana Demirspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Adana Demirspor 3.57. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 83% | Adana Demirspor 86% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Medical Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 47% | Draw 25% | Adana Demirspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Trabzonspor 1.80 / Adana Demirspor 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.195 / def 1.123 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.108 / def 1.311 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Adana Demirspor xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Trabzonspor 2 - 0 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 47% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.20x the league average against Adana Demirspor's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
47%
2.12
25%
4.02
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.16
1.36
Adana Demirspor xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
5%
21.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.4 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.36 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor come into this having played 14 games, going 11W 3D 0L for 2.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 1.43 PPG from 14 outings (5W 5D 4L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.14 PPG clear of Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trabzonspor's home form reads 4W 2D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 1.33 points per game from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.43 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 11W 3D 0L in their last 14 games (2.57 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 5W 5D 4L in their last 14 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.33 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trabzonspor go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2024, when Trabzonspor won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Trabzonspor
0
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 6, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Adana Demirspor 0-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Trabzonspor at 83%, Adana Demirspor at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Trabzonspor and 83% for Adana Demirspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Trabzonspor's games and 83% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Trabzonspor's matches and 83% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Adana Demirspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Adana Demirspor 2-0 at Medical Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.80 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.36 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Adana Demirspor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.20 / defence 1.12 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.11 / defence 1.31, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 47% | Draw 25% | Adana Demirspor 28%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 64%, Adana Demirspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.57 PPG against 1.43. Form held, and they took the win. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.