İstanbulspor 4-0 Ümraniyespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ümraniyespor at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this İstanbulspor vs Ümraniyespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Ümraniyespor travel to Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu to take on İstanbulspor. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 7 June 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, İstanbulspor have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, İstanbulspor have posted 4W 2D 4L at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Ümraniyespor — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Ümraniyespor have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
İstanbulspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, İstanbulspor have won 1, Ümraniyespor 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2023, ended 2–0 with İstanbulspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
İstanbulspor in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Ümraniyespor in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — İstanbulspor 46% versus Ümraniyespor 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (İstanbulspor 57% | Ümraniyespor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects İstanbulspor 1.30 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: İstanbulspor attack 0.746 / defence 1.064 | Ümraniyespor attack 0.956 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.436. İstanbulspor's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 İstanbulspor games / 35 Ümraniyespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: İstanbulspor 34% | Draw 25% | Ümraniyespor 41%. Fair-value odds: İstanbulspor 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Ümraniyespor 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ümraniyespor are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form İstanbulspor (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ümraniyespor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: İstanbulspor 40% | Ümraniyespor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: İstanbulspor vs Ümraniyespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Jun 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: İstanbulspor 34% | Draw 25% | Ümraniyespor 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG İstanbulspor 1.30 / Ümraniyespor 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: İstanbulspor attack 0.746 / def 1.064 | Ümraniyespor attack 0.956 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Ümraniyespor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
İstanbulspor xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Ümraniyespor xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does İstanbulspor vs Ümraniyespor kick off?
İstanbulspor vs Ümraniyespor kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 7 June 2023 at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What was the final score in İstanbulspor vs Ümraniyespor?
İstanbulspor 4 - 0 Ümraniyespor.
Where is İstanbulspor vs Ümraniyespor being played?
The match is being played at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What competition is İstanbulspor vs Ümraniyespor part of?
İstanbulspor vs Ümraniyespor is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win İstanbulspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our statistical model gives İstanbulspor a 34% chance of winning, Ümraniyespor a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ümraniyespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in İstanbulspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both İstanbulspor and Ümraniyespor will score (BTTS).
Will İstanbulspor vs Ümraniyespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Ümraniyespor?
Record (1 meetings): İstanbulspor 1W | Draws 0 | Ümraniyespor 0W.
What form are İstanbulspor and Ümraniyespor in?
İstanbulspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Ümraniyespor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates İstanbulspor's attack at 0.75x the league average against Ümraniyespor's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ümraniyespor's attack versus İstanbulspor's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ümraniyespor Win
34%
2.97
25%
3.94
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
İstanbulspor xG
Total xG
2.76
1.46
Ümraniyespor xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
8%
12.79
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for İstanbulspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are İstanbulspor and Ümraniyespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for İstanbulspor and 1.46 for Ümraniyespor, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for İstanbulspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
İstanbulspor come into this having played 35 games, going 11W 5D 19L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Ümraniyespor sit at 0.86 PPG from 35 outings (7W 9D 19L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: İstanbulspor on 1.09 PPG, Ümraniyespor on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
İstanbulspor's home form reads 5W 3D 9L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Ümraniyespor have taken 1.00 points per game from 17 outings (4W 5D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
İstanbulspor are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Ümraniyespor are on 1.34 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ümraniyespor in 66%.
Last 35 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
İstanbulspor
Current Season
Ümraniyespor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are İstanbulspor and Ümraniyespor in coming into this match?
İstanbulspor have gone 11W 5D 19L in their last 35 games (1.09 PPG), while Ümraniyespor have gone 7W 9D 19L in their last 35 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — İstanbulspor at home or Ümraniyespor away?
İstanbulspor's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — İstanbulspor at home: 1.06 PPG; Ümraniyespor away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
İstanbulspor
0
Draws
0
Ümraniyespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Ümraniyespor?
From 2 meetings on record, İstanbulspor have won 2, Ümraniyespor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did İstanbulspor and Ümraniyespor last play each other?
They last met on 7 June 2023, when İstanbulspor 4-0 Ümraniyespor.
Who has won more matches between İstanbulspor and Ümraniyespor?
İstanbulspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ümraniyespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — İstanbulspor 47%, Ümraniyespor 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (İstanbulspor) and 59% (Ümraniyespor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: İstanbulspor have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = İstanbulspor home games / Ümraniyespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when İstanbulspor play Ümraniyespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of İstanbulspor's games and 71% of Ümraniyespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is İstanbulspor vs Ümraniyespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of İstanbulspor's matches and 59% of Ümraniyespor's.
Do İstanbulspor and Ümraniyespor tend to score early?
İstanbulspor have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Ümraniyespor in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant İstanbulspor run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Ümraniyespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
İstanbulspor beat Ümraniyespor 4-0 at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting İstanbulspor 1.30 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.46 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. İstanbulspor beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ümraniyespor landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of İstanbulspor attack 0.75 / defence 1.06 against Ümraniyespor attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it İstanbulspor 34% | Draw 25% | Ümraniyespor 41%, with Ümraniyespor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual İstanbulspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (İstanbulspor 57%, Ümraniyespor 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
İstanbulspor's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — İstanbulspor 1.09 PPG, Ümraniyespor 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the İstanbulspor win broke the near-deadlock. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. Ümraniyespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.