İstanbulspor 2-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu plays host to İstanbulspor versus Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Wednesday 28 December 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
İstanbulspor (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for İstanbulspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
İstanbulspor's home record at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu: 0W 1D 5L from 6 Süper Lig appearances (0.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game.
Kasımpaşa have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Kasımpaşa are 0.70 PPG clear of İstanbulspor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.20 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
İstanbulspor — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — İstanbulspor 57% versus Kasımpaşa 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (İstanbulspor 57% | Kasımpaşa 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects İstanbulspor 0.97 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: İstanbulspor attack 0.745 / defence 1.485 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.929 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.406. İstanbulspor's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 İstanbulspor games / 52 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: İstanbulspor 18% | Draw 23% | Kasımpaşa 59%. Fair-value odds: İstanbulspor 5.56 | Draw 4.35 | Kasımpaşa 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Kasımpaşa (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: İstanbulspor 50% | Kasımpaşa 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: İstanbulspor 18% | Draw 23% | Kasımpaşa 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG İstanbulspor 0.97 / Kasımpaşa 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: İstanbulspor attack 0.745 / def 1.485 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.929 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
İstanbulspor xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Kasımpaşa xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 14:00 on Wednesday 28 December 2022 at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What was the final score in İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa?
İstanbulspor 2 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What competition is İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives İstanbulspor a 18% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 59% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both İstanbulspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Kasımpaşa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are İstanbulspor and Kasımpaşa in?
İstanbulspor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from İstanbulspor's attack rating (0.74) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (0.93x) against İstanbulspor's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 1.94.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
18%
5.65
23%
4.35
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
İstanbulspor xG
Total xG
2.91
1.94
Kasımpaşa xG
5.65
18%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
14%
6.95
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
3%
39.25
22%
4.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 10.6 | 10.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are İstanbulspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for İstanbulspor and 1.94 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, İstanbulspor have picked up 0.57 PPG on a 2W 2D 10L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for İstanbulspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 4W 3D 7L from 14 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kasımpaşa are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against İstanbulspor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, İstanbulspor have posted 0.17 PPG from 6 outings (0W 1D 5L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
İstanbulspor are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 0.86 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
İstanbulspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are İstanbulspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
İstanbulspor have gone 2W 2D 10L in their last 14 games (0.57 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — İstanbulspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Kasımpaşa's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — İstanbulspor at home: 0.17 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Kasımpaşa go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, İstanbulspor have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
İstanbulspor
0
Draws
3
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 4 meetings on record, İstanbulspor have won 1, Kasımpaşa have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did İstanbulspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2024, when İstanbulspor 1-2 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between İstanbulspor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — İstanbulspor 50%, Kasımpaşa 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (İstanbulspor) and 33% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa in 33%; İstanbulspor have failed to score in 50% of games; Kasımpaşa in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = İstanbulspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when İstanbulspor play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of İstanbulspor's recent matches and 33% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of İstanbulspor's recent games and 33% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do İstanbulspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
İstanbulspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as İstanbulspor defy the odds to beat Kasımpaşa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
İstanbulspor beat Kasımpaşa 2-1 at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting İstanbulspor 0.97 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.94 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. İstanbulspor beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kasımpaşa landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of İstanbulspor attack 0.74 / defence 1.49 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.93 / defence 0.90, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it İstanbulspor 18% | Draw 23% | Kasımpaşa 59%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a İstanbulspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (İstanbulspor 57%, Kasımpaşa 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
İstanbulspor's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kasımpaşa arrived the stronger side — 1.07 PPG against 0.57. Form was overturned, with İstanbulspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.