Sivasspor 1-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu plays host to Sivasspor versus Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 15 January 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sivasspor have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sivasspor have posted 3W 6D 1L at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Trabzonspor (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor away from home this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Trabzonspor arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sivasspor, 1 for Trabzonspor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sivasspor — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 55% versus Trabzonspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 45% | Trabzonspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.12 xG and Trabzonspor 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 1.002 / defence 0.977 | Trabzonspor attack 1.114 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.096. Data: 20 Sivasspor games / 20 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 34% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 37%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Trabzonspor 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sivasspor 50% | Trabzonspor 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 34% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Sivasspor 1.12 / Trabzonspor 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 1.002 / def 0.977 | Trabzonspor attack 1.114 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Trabzonspor xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor?
Sivasspor 1 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 34% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sivasspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (1 meetings): Sivasspor 0W | Draws 0 | Trabzonspor 1W.
What form are Sivasspor and Trabzonspor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sivasspor's attack rating (1.00) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (1.11x) against Sivasspor's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
34%
2.96
29%
3.47
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.31
1.19
Trabzonspor xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
10%
9.76
12%
8.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.19 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 20 outings, Sivasspor have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 7W 8D 5L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor's form line: 15W 4D 1L from 20 games, 2.45 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sivasspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sivasspor have posted 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (3W 6D 1L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sivasspor are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.85 scored and 0.70 conceded. Trabzonspor's attacking output running into Sivasspor's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Trabzonspor in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 7W 8D 5L in their last 20 games (1.45 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 15W 4D 1L in their last 20 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.50 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Sivasspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 4-0 on 20 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sivasspor have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sivasspor
3
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Trabzonspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2025, when Trabzonspor 4-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 50%, Trabzonspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Sivasspor) and 60% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Sivasspor keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sivasspor's games and 60% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Sivasspor's recent games and 60% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sivasspor and Trabzonspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, as Sivasspor and Trabzonspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.12 xG and Trabzonspor 1.19 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 1.00 / defence 0.98 against Trabzonspor attack 1.11 / defence 0.97, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 34% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 37%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 45%, Trabzonspor 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.