Sivasspor 3-0 Giresunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Giresunspor at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Giresunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Giresunspor make the trip to Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu to face Sivasspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Monday 17 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sivasspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sivasspor have posted 3W 4D 3L at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Giresunspor have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Giresunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Giresunspor away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Sivasspor against 0.90 for Giresunspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sivasspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Giresunspor in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Sivasspor 0W, Giresunspor 0W, 2D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sivasspor half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Giresunspor half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 67% versus Giresunspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 52% | Giresunspor 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.03 xG and Giresunspor 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.790 / defence 0.996 | Giresunspor attack 0.821 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.287. Sivasspor's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Sivasspor games / 46 Giresunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 34% | Draw 30% | Giresunspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Giresunspor 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 42% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
On the Poisson output, Giresunspor are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Giresunspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sivasspor 70% | Giresunspor 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Giresunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 17 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 34% | Draw 30% | Giresunspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Sivasspor 1.03 / Giresunspor 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.790 / def 0.996 | Giresunspor attack 0.821 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Giresunspor (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Giresunspor xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Giresunspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Giresunspor kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 17 October 2022 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Giresunspor?
Sivasspor 3 - 0 Giresunspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Giresunspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Giresunspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Giresunspor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Giresunspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 34% chance of winning, Giresunspor a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Giresunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Giresunspor?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sivasspor and Giresunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Giresunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Giresunspor?
Record (2 meetings): Sivasspor 0W | Draws 2 | Giresunspor 0W.
What form are Sivasspor and Giresunspor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Giresunspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sivasspor's attack at 0.79x the league average against Giresunspor's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Giresunspor's attack (0.82x) against Sivasspor's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Giresunspor Win
34%
2.91
30%
3.32
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.08
1.05
Giresunspor xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
13%
7.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Giresunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Giresunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.05 for Giresunspor, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Giresunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Sivasspor have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 15W 16D 15L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Giresunspor's form line: 14W 11D 21L from 46 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Giresunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Sivasspor against 1.15 for Giresunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sivasspor have posted 1.43 PPG from 23 outings (7W 12D 4L).
On the road, Giresunspor have gone 6W 6D 11L from 23 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sivasspor are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Giresunspor are on 1.02 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Giresunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Giresunspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 15W 16D 15L in their last 46 games (1.33 PPG), while Giresunspor have gone 14W 11D 21L in their last 46 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Giresunspor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.43 PPG; Giresunspor away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sivasspor won 3-0 on 17 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sivasspor have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Giresunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sivasspor
2
Draws
1
Giresunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Giresunspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 1, Giresunspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Giresunspor last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2023, when Giresunspor 1-0 Sivasspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Giresunspor see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 70%, Giresunspor 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sivasspor) and 39% (Giresunspor).
On the defensive side: Giresunspor in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Giresunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Giresunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Sivasspor's games and 52% of Giresunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Giresunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sivasspor's recent games and 39% of Giresunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Giresunspor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Giresunspor in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sivasspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Giresunspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Giresunspor 3-0 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.03 xG and Giresunspor 1.05 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sivasspor beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Giresunspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.79 / defence 1.00 against Giresunspor attack 0.82 / defence 0.95, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 34% | Draw 30% | Giresunspor 35%, with Giresunspor to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Sivasspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 52%, Giresunspor 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Giresunspor's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.33 PPG, Giresunspor 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Giresunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.