Samsunspor 1-5 Çorum FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Samsunspor at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Çorum FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Samsunspor and Çorum FK meet at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Samsunspor have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Samsunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Samsunspor's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Çorum FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L W. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 2.25. Conceding 2.25 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Çorum FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Samsunspor's favour (1.90 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Samsunspor half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Çorum FK half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 25% versus Çorum FK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 25% | Çorum FK 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 2.39 xG and Çorum FK 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 1.009 / defence 1.157 | Çorum FK attack 1.084 / defence 1.523. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.215. Çorum FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.523 — this is suppressing Samsunspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Samsunspor games / 4 Çorum FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 57% | Draw 19% | Çorum FK 24%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 1.75 | Draw 5.26 | Çorum FK 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Samsunspor (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.91. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.91 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.39 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Samsunspor as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Samsunspor 50% | Çorum FK 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Çorum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 57% | Draw 19% | Çorum FK 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 71% | xG Samsunspor 2.39 / Çorum FK 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 1.009 / def 1.157 | Çorum FK attack 1.084 / def 1.523 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Çorum FK xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Çorum FK kick off?
Samsunspor vs Çorum FK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 September 2026 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Çorum FK?
Samsunspor 1 - 5 Çorum FK.
Where is Samsunspor vs Çorum FK being played?
The match is being played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Çorum FK part of?
Samsunspor vs Çorum FK is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Çorum FK?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 57% chance of winning, Çorum FK a 24% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Çorum FK?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Samsunspor and Çorum FK will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Çorum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Çorum FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Samsunspor and Çorum FK in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Çorum FK (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 2.25 | L5 D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Samsunspor's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Çorum FK's defensive record (1.52x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.39. Flip it around — Çorum FK's attack (1.08x) against Samsunspor's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
57%
1.76
19%
5.19
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
3.91
1.52
Çorum FK xG
1.76
57%
Home win
5.19
19%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.45
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
9%
10.91
Win to Nil
12%
8.08
2%
45.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Çorum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Çorum FK expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.52 for Çorum FK, a combined total of 3.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Çorum FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Samsunspor's recent record stands at 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Samsunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Çorum FK, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 2L across 4 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Çorum FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Samsunspor against 1.00 for Çorum FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Samsunspor are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Çorum FK are on 1.75 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Samsunspor have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Early Season
Çorum FK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Çorum FK in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Çorum FK have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since September 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Samsunspor
0
Draws
1
Çorum FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Çorum FK?
From 1 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 0, Çorum FK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Çorum FK last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Samsunspor 1-5 Çorum FK.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Çorum FK?
Çorum FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Çorum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 25%, Çorum FK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Samsunspor) and 75% (Çorum FK).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Çorum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Çorum FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 50% of Çorum FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Samsunspor vs Çorum FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Samsunspor's recent games and 75% of Çorum FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Çorum FK tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Çorum FK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Çorum FK run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Samsunspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Çorum FK beat Samsunspor 1-5 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 2.39 xG and Çorum FK 1.52 xG, a combined 3.91. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Samsunspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Çorum FK outscored their 1.52 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.01 / defence 1.16 against Çorum FK attack 1.08 / defence 1.52, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 57% | Draw 19% | Çorum FK 24%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Çorum FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 25%, Çorum FK 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Çorum FK's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.00 PPG, Çorum FK 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Çorum FK win broke the near-deadlock. Samsunspor shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Çorum FK scored 5 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.