Rizespor 3-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antalyaspor make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rizespor have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Rizespor's home record at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Antalyaspor (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Rizespor against 1.20 for Antalyaspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rizespor lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 42% versus Antalyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 55% | Antalyaspor 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.42 xG and Antalyaspor 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 1.031 / defence 0.939 | Antalyaspor attack 0.968 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.208. Data: 31 Rizespor games / 67 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 42% | Draw 31% | Antalyaspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Antalyaspor 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rizespor as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 40% | Antalyaspor 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 42% | Draw 31% | Antalyaspor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Rizespor 1.42 / Antalyaspor 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 1.031 / def 0.939 | Antalyaspor attack 0.968 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Antalyaspor xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Antalyaspor?
Rizespor 3 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Rizespor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 42% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Rizespor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Antalyaspor?
Record (3 meetings): Rizespor 1W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 1W.
What form are Rizespor and Antalyaspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Rizespor's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Antalyaspor's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.97x) against Rizespor's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 31/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
42%
2.38
31%
3.24
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.52
1.10
Antalyaspor xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
7%
15.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.10 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rizespor come into this having played 31 games, going 13W 6D 12L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.35 PPG from 31 outings (10W 12D 9L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Rizespor against 1.35 for Antalyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Rizespor's home form reads 10W 2D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 1.07 points per game from 15 outings (4W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rizespor are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.16 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 13W 6D 12L in their last 31 games (1.45 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 10W 12D 9L in their last 31 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Rizespor's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 2.13 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Rizespor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rizespor won 3-0 on 14 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Rizespor
1
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Antalyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 5, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Rizespor 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Antalyaspor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rizespor see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 33%, Antalyaspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Rizespor) and 47% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Rizespor's recent matches and 60% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Rizespor's recent games and 47% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rizespor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Antalyaspor 3-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.42 xG and Antalyaspor 1.10 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Antalyaspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 1.03 / defence 0.94 against Antalyaspor attack 0.97 / defence 0.94, drawn from 31/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 42% | Draw 31% | Antalyaspor 27%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 55%, Antalyaspor 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.45 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.