Konyaspor 1-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Konyaspor and Antalyaspor meet at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 December 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Konyaspor have gone 5W 3D 0L this season (8 games, 2.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Antalyaspor have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor away from home this season: 1W 2D 4L from 7 away games — 0.71 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.71 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Konyaspor, 1.60 for Antalyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 56% versus Antalyaspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 50% | Antalyaspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.61 xG and Antalyaspor 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 1.027 / defence 0.901 | Antalyaspor attack 0.739 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.173. Antalyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing Konyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Konyaspor games / 16 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 56% | Draw 26% | Antalyaspor 17%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Antalyaspor 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Konyaspor (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 62% | Antalyaspor 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 56% | Draw 26% | Antalyaspor 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 44% | xG Konyaspor 1.61 / Antalyaspor 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 1.027 / def 0.901 | Antalyaspor attack 0.739 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Antalyaspor xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Konyaspor 1 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 56% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Konyaspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Antalyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Konyaspor and Antalyaspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Antalyaspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 1.03x the league average against Antalyaspor's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.74x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
56%
1.77
26%
3.83
17%
5.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.39
0.78
Antalyaspor xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
5.74
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
3%
28.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.78 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Konyaspor come into this having played 16 games, going 8W 6D 2L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.31 PPG from 16 outings (6W 3D 7L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Konyaspor's home form reads 4W 3D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 0.71 points per game from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.25 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 8W 6D 2L in their last 16 games (1.88 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 6W 3D 7L in their last 16 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 2.14 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
6
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Antalyaspor 0-2 Konyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Antalyaspor see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 57%, Antalyaspor 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Konyaspor) and 43% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 43% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Konyaspor's recent games and 43% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Antalyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Antalyaspor 1-0 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.61 xG and Antalyaspor 0.78 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.03 / defence 0.90 against Antalyaspor attack 0.74 / defence 1.29, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 56% | Draw 26% | Antalyaspor 17%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 50%, Antalyaspor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.