Kasımpaşa 1-1 Pendikspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Pendikspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 3 as Kasımpaşa welcome Pendikspor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 August 2023 at 17:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Kasımpaşa have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pendikspor stand at 0W 1D 1L from 2 Süper Lig matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Pendikspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.74 xG and Pendikspor 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.238 / defence 1.149 | Pendikspor attack 0.844 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.325. Data: 38 Kasımpaşa games / 2 Pendikspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 45% | Draw 30% | Pendikspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Pendikspor 4.00. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Pendikspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 45% | Draw 30% | Pendikspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.74 / Pendikspor 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.238 / def 1.149 | Pendikspor attack 0.844 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Pendikspor xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Pendikspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Pendikspor kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Pendikspor?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 1 Pendikspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Pendikspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Pendikspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Pendikspor is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Pendikspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 45% chance of winning, Pendikspor a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Pendikspor?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Pendikspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Pendikspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Pendikspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Pendikspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Pendikspor (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 1.24x the league average against Pendikspor's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pendikspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (38/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
45%
2.21
30%
3.38
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.03
1.28
Pendikspor xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
18%
5.71
Win to Nil
13%
7.99
4%
22.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Pendikspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Pendikspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.28 for Pendikspor, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Pendikspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kasımpaşa's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pendikspor, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pendikspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kasımpaşa by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pendikspor heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Pendikspor are on 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor in 100%.
Defensively: Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Pendikspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Pendikspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Pendikspor have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Kasımpaşa or Pendikspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Pendikspor in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kasımpaşa and Pendikspor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kasımpaşa
1
Draws
1
Pendikspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Pendikspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Pendikspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Pendikspor last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2024, when Pendikspor 3-2 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Pendikspor?
Pendikspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Pendikspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Pendikspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Kasımpaşa's games and 100% of Pendikspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Pendikspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 50% of Pendikspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Pendikspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Pendikspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa and Pendikspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa and Pendikspor finished level at 1-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.74 xG and Pendikspor 1.28 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.24 / defence 1.15 against Pendikspor attack 0.84 / defence 1.03, drawn from 38/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 45% | Draw 30% | Pendikspor 25%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 50%, Pendikspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Kasımpaşa arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pendikspor conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.